Balogh–Narayanan–Skokan counting conjecture for linear-cycle-free hypergraphs

For every fixed pair of integers r,k≥3r,k\ge 3, let Ck(r)C_k^{(r)} denote the rr-uniform linear cycle with kk hyperedges, and let ex⁡r(n,Ck(r))\operatorname{ex}_r(n,C_k^{(r)}) be the maximum number of hyperedges in an nn-vertex Ck(r)C_k^{(r)}-free rr-uniform hypergraph. The conjecture is that, as n→∞n\to\infty, the number of labelled nn-vertex Ck(r)C_k^{(r)}-free rr-uniform hypergraphs is 2(1+o(1))ex⁡r(n,Ck(r))2^{(1+o(1))\operatorname{ex}_r(n,C_k^{(r)})}; equivalently, ∣Forb⁡r(n,Ck(r))∣=2(1+o(1))ex⁡r(n,Ck(r))\left|\operatorname{Forb}_r(n,C_k^{(r)})\right|=2^{(1+o(1))\operatorname{ex}_r(n,C_k^{(r)})}, where Forb⁡r(n,Ck(r))\operatorname{Forb}_r(n,C_k^{(r)}) is the family of such hypergraphs.

References

Primary source

arXiv

Additional references

Progress summary

Refreshed
Claimed solved

A new unrefereed paper claims to settle the counting conjecture in every uniformity and cycle length, including the hardest known case, but the claim has not been independently checked.

The conjecture asks whether the number of hypergraphs avoiding a fixed linear cycle is asymptotically governed by the extremal number. Balogh, Narayanan, and Skokan established the correct exponential order in 2019 but left the sharper asymptotic open.

Known results

  • Balogh, Narayanan, and Skokan (2019): 2Θ(nr−1)2^{\Theta(n^{r-1})} hypergraphs for every fixed r,k≥3r,k\ge3.
  • Their paper leaves open ∣Forb⁡r(n,Ck(r))∣=2(1+o(1))ex⁡r(n,Ck(r))|\operatorname{Forb}_r(n,C_k^{(r)})|=2^{(1+o(1))\operatorname{ex}_r(n,C_k^{(r)})}.
  • Jiang and Longbrake (2024): the sharper formula for k≥5k\ge5, covering a broad class and settling those parameters.

September 30, 2026 claimed resolution

Balogh, Garcia, and Methuku claim the sharper formula for all fixed r,k≥3r,k\ge3, including (r,k)=(3,3)(r,k)=(3,3), in Counting hypergraphs without linear cycles. The retrieved evidence is an unrefereed preprint and contains no independent assessment.

Current status (as of October 2026): The cases k≥5k\ge5 are supported by prior work, while the claimed all-r,k≥3r,k\ge3 resolution, including (3,3)(3,3), remains unverified.

Sources

Solutions 0

No solutions have been posted yet.