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Spacetime Penrose inequality

An initial data set (M,g,k)(M,g,k) consists of a smooth 33-manifold MM with compact boundary ∂M\partial M, a complete Riemannian metric gg and a symmetric 22-tensor kk. Its energy and momentum densities are

μ=12(Rg+(tr⁡gk)2−∣k∣g2),J=div⁡g(k−(tr⁡gk) g),\mu=\tfrac12\bigl(R_g+(\operatorname{tr}_gk)^2-|k|_g^2\bigr),\qquad J=\operatorname{div}_g\bigl(k-(\operatorname{tr}_gk)\,g\bigr),

and it satisfies the dominant energy condition if μ≥∣J∣g\mu\ge|J|_g on MM.

The data are asymptotically flat if, outside a compact set, MM is diffeomorphic to R3\mathbb R^3 minus a ball and, for some q>12q>\tfrac12,

gij−δij=O2(∣x∣−q),kij=O1(∣x∣−q−1),μ, J∈L1(M).g_{ij}-\delta_{ij}=O_2(|x|^{-q}),\qquad k_{ij}=O_1(|x|^{-q-1}),\qquad \mu,\ J\in L^1(M).

The ADM energy and momentum are

E=lim⁡r→∞116π∫∣x∣=r(∂jgij−∂igjj)νi dA,Pi=lim⁡r→∞18π∫∣x∣=r(kij−(tr⁡gk) gij)νj dA,E=\lim_{r\to\infty}\frac1{16\pi}\int_{|x|=r}\bigl(\partial_jg_{ij}-\partial_ig_{jj}\bigr)\nu^i\,dA,\qquad P_i=\lim_{r\to\infty}\frac1{8\pi}\int_{|x|=r}\bigl(k_{ij}-(\operatorname{tr}_gk)\,g_{ij}\bigr)\nu^j\,dA ,

and the ADM mass is m=E2−∣P∣2m=\sqrt{E^2-|P|^2}, which is well defined because E≥∣P∣E\ge|P| under the dominant energy condition.

For a closed surface Σ⊂M\Sigma\subset M with unit normal ν\nu pointing toward the asymptotic end and mean curvature HH, the null expansions are θ±=H±tr⁡Σk\theta_\pm=H\pm\operatorname{tr}_\Sigma k. A component of Σ\Sigma is a marginally outer trapped surface if θ+=0\theta_+=0 and a marginally inner trapped surface if θ−=0\theta_-=0. Assume that every component of ∂M\partial M is of one of these two kinds, and that ∂M\partial M is outermost: no closed surface in M∖∂MM\setminus\partial M that encloses ∂M\partial M has all of its components satisfying θ+≤0\theta_+\le0 or θ−≤0\theta_-\le0. Let

Amin⁡=inf⁡{∣Σ∣g: Σ⊂M a closed surface enclosing ∂M}.A_{\min}=\inf\bigl\{|\Sigma|_g:\ \Sigma\subset M\text{ a closed surface enclosing }\partial M\bigr\}.

Conjecture (spacetime Penrose inequality). Every asymptotically flat initial data set as above satisfies

m ≥ Amin⁡16π,m\ \ge\ \sqrt{\frac{A_{\min}}{16\pi}} ,

and equality holds only if (M,g,k)(M,g,k) arises as a spacelike hypersurface, with induced metric gg and second fundamental form kk, in a Schwarzschild spacetime of mass mm.

The problem is to prove this inequality with its rigidity statement, or to construct data satisfying all the hypotheses that violate it. The minimal enclosing area cannot be replaced by the area ∣∂M∣|\partial M| of the horizon itself, because that version has counterexamples [6]. [1, 7, 15]

Background

Penrose derived the inequality in 1973 from a heuristic argument [1]. A spacetime that collapses to a black hole should settle down to a Kerr spacetime. The horizon area cannot decrease by Hawking's area theorem, and the Bondi mass cannot increase. Comparing the initial data with the final Kerr state yields m≥A/16πm\ge\sqrt{A/16\pi}. A counterexample would therefore cast doubt on weak cosmic censorship, which the heuristic assumes. A proof would sharpen the positive mass theorem [5], which is the case Amin⁡=0A_{\min}=0.

In the time-symmetric case k=0k=0, the dominant energy condition becomes Rg≥0R_g\ge0. Apparent horizons are then minimal surfaces, and an outermost one minimizes area among enclosing surfaces, so Amin⁡=∣∂M∣A_{\min}=|\partial M|. This is the Riemannian Penrose inequality. For general kk the Jang equation and generalized Jang equations relate the spacetime problem to the Riemannian one, but the reduction is not known to preserve the sharp constant [7]. Bray and Khuri proposed a variant using generalized apparent horizons, and Carrasco and Mars found a counterexample to it [8].

References
  1. R. Penrose, "Naked singularities", Ann. New York Acad. Sci. 224 (1973), 125–134. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1973.tb41447.x
  2. G. Huisken and T. Ilmanen, "The inverse mean curvature flow and the Riemannian Penrose inequality", J. Differential Geom. 59 (2001), 353–437. doi:10.4310/jdg/1090349447
  3. H. L. Bray, "Proof of the Riemannian Penrose inequality using the positive mass theorem", J. Differential Geom. 59 (2001), 177–267. doi:10.4310/jdg/1090349428
  4. H. L. Bray and D. A. Lee, "On the Riemannian Penrose inequality in dimensions less than eight", Duke Math. J. 148 (2009), 81–106. doi:10.1215/00127094-2009-020
  5. R. Schoen and S.-T. Yau, "Proof of the positive mass theorem. II", Comm. Math. Phys. 79 (1981), 231–260. doi:10.1007/BF01942062
  6. I. Ben-Dov, "The Penrose inequality and apparent horizons", Phys. Rev. D 70 (2004), 124031. doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.70.124031
  7. M. Mars, "Present status of the Penrose inequality", Classical Quantum Gravity 26 (2009), 193001. arXiv:0906.5566
  8. A. Carrasco and M. Mars, "A counterexample to a recent version of the Penrose conjecture", Classical Quantum Gravity 27 (2010), 062001. arXiv:0911.0883
  9. E. Malec and N. Ó Murchadha, "Trapped surfaces and the Penrose inequality in spherically symmetric geometries", Phys. Rev. D 49 (1994), 6931–6934. doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.49.6931
  10. M. Khuri and H. Kunduri, "The spacetime Penrose inequality for cohomogeneity one initial data", Adv. Theor. Math. Phys. 29 (2025), 1905–1943. doi:10.4310/ATMP.251120040338
  11. B. Allen, E. Bryden, D. Kazaras and M. Khuri, "Proof of the spacetime Penrose inequality with suboptimal constant in the asymptotically flat and asymptotically hyperboloidal regimes", preprint (2025). arXiv:2504.10641
  12. C. Dong, "The Penrose conjecture for initial data sets satisfying a 2-convexity condition", preprint (2026). arXiv:2607.20741
  13. H. Bray, T. Dolmen, M. Khuri and D. Schmidt, "Proof of the Penrose conjecture for maximally parameterized initial data sets", preprint (2026). arXiv:2610.20559
  14. OpenAI, "The spacetime Penrose inequality and enclosing area", preprint (2026). github.com/openai/math
  15. Wikipedia, Penrose inequality.

Source: ProofAtlas open problems; D. Xu, 'The Spacetime Penrose Inequality: Conditional Results for Stable MOTS and General Trapped Surfaces,' arXiv:2512.04137v5 (2025).

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Solutions 5

Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims sharp spacetime Penrose inequalities for invariant ADM mass and minimum enclosing area in three and four spatial dimensions. Under their respective designated-end conventions, the neutral numerical results allow arbitrary second fundamental form, nonzero momentum, disconnected weakly future trapped boundary and finitely many ends. The designated-end area classes differ; they are not identified with one another.See full solutionHide full solution

Scope relative to this problem: The source uses invariant ADM mass and full minimum-enclosing-area conventions under the stated decay, dominant energy and weak future-trapping assumptions. Its three-dimensional admissible subclass addresses the target enclosing-area inequality, while higher-dimensional or additional-end formulations retain their own designated-end classes. No equality rigidity beyond the source hypotheses is inferred.

GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math

Manuscript: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/Spacetime-Penrose-inequalities-enclosing-area-charge-and-rigidity-October-5-2026/paper.pdf

  • OpenAI-260-03-Spacetime-Penrose-inequalities-enclosing-area-charge-and-rigidity.pdf1,986,464 bytesOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. Claims the sharp spacetime Penrose inequality for smooth one-ended initial-data exteriors in every spatial dimension n ≥ 3, under the dominant energy condition, weak future trapping, the stated differentiated decay and positive enclosing area. These hypotheses force the ADM energy-momentum to be future timelike.See full solutionHide full solution

Scope relative to this problem: The source uses invariant ADM mass and full minimum-enclosing-area conventions under the stated decay, dominant energy and weak future-trapping assumptions. Its three-dimensional admissible subclass addresses the target enclosing-area inequality, while higher-dimensional or additional-end formulations retain their own designated-end classes. No equality rigidity beyond the source hypotheses is inferred.

GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math

Manuscript: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/The-spacetime-Penrose-inequality-and-enclosing-area-September-27-2026/paper.pdf

  • OpenAI-260-09-The-spacetime-Penrose-inequality-and-enclosing-area.pdf910,424 bytesOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. Claims to give a detailed conformal-flow proof of the numerical Riemannian Penrose inequality in every dimension n ≥ 3 for complete asymptotically flat exteriors with nonnegative scalar curvature and full compact frontiers that are outer minimizing and locally perimeter minimizing. The metric extends smoothly through the possibly singular frontier; neither spin nor frontier connectedness is assumed.See full solutionHide full solution

Scope relative to this problem: This is a Riemannian numerical Penrose companion, with zero second fundamental form, nonnegative scalar curvature and the stated outer/local perimeter-minimizing full-frontier hypotheses. Its three-dimensional subcase is time-symmetric progress toward the spacetime target; its all-dimensional numerical statement does not by itself address arbitrary extrinsic curvature or spacetime rigidity.

GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math

Manuscript: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/Conformal-flow-and-the-Riemannian-Penrose-inequality-with-minimizing-frontiers-September-27-2026/paper.pdf

  • OpenAI-260-10-Conformal-flow-and-the-Riemannian-Penrose-inequality-with-minimizing-frontiers.pdf735,828 bytesOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims that equality in the spacetime Penrose inequality identifies the original initial data as a spacelike slice of a Schwarzschild–Tangherlini exterior, smoothly attached to its horizon, under the stated outermostness and decay hypotheses. Claims this in every spatial dimension n ≥ 3 for a strong-decay exterior class and for weaker decay in dimensions three and four.See full solutionHide full solution

Scope relative to this problem: This is equality rigidity under the stated outermostness and decay hypotheses, recovering original data as a Schwarzschild-Tangherlini spacelike exterior slice attached smoothly to its horizon. Strong decay covers every n>=3; weaker-decay scope covers dimensions three and four. It is an equality-classification companion, not a standalone assertion of the numerical inequality under every target hypothesis.

GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math

Manuscript: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/Equality-and-rigidity-in-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality-September-27-2026/paper.pdf

  • OpenAI-260-11-Equality-and-rigidity-in-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality.pdf1,274,586 bytesOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims graph and conformal deformations of trapped initial-data exteriors in three and four spatial dimensions. The resulting metrics have nonnegative scalar curvature, strictly negative inner mean curvature, a lower bound for every enclosing cut and arbitrarily small upper error in ADM energy. It also gives a four-dimensional maximal vacuum construction retaining a noncompact decaying second fundamental form.See full solutionHide full solution

Scope relative to this problem: This companion provides graph and conformal deformation estimates in three and four spatial dimensions: nonnegative scalar curvature, negative inner mean curvature, enclosing-cut lower bounds and arbitrarily small upper ADM-energy error. It is supporting geometric progress, not the completed numerical inequality or equality classification by itself; the four-dimensional maximal-vacuum construction retains its noncompact decaying second fundamental form.

GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math

Manuscript: https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/Boundary-graph-deformations-for-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality-September-27-2026/paper.pdf

  • OpenAI-260-12-Boundary-graph-deformations-for-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality.pdf1,254,888 bytesOpen