Spacetime Penrose inequality
An initial data set consists of a smooth -manifold with compact boundary , a complete Riemannian metric and a symmetric -tensor . Its energy and momentum densities are
and it satisfies the dominant energy condition if on .
The data are asymptotically flat if, outside a compact set, is diffeomorphic to minus a ball and, for some ,
The ADM energy and momentum are
and the ADM mass is , which is well defined because under the dominant energy condition.
For a closed surface with unit normal pointing toward the asymptotic end and mean curvature , the null expansions are . A component of is a marginally outer trapped surface if and a marginally inner trapped surface if . Assume that every component of is of one of these two kinds, and that is outermost: no closed surface in that encloses has all of its components satisfying or . Let
Conjecture (spacetime Penrose inequality). Every asymptotically flat initial data set as above satisfies
and equality holds only if arises as a spacelike hypersurface, with induced metric and second fundamental form , in a Schwarzschild spacetime of mass .
The problem is to prove this inequality with its rigidity statement, or to construct data satisfying all the hypotheses that violate it. The minimal enclosing area cannot be replaced by the area of the horizon itself, because that version has counterexamples [6]. [1, 7, 15]
Background
Penrose derived the inequality in 1973 from a heuristic argument [1]. A spacetime that collapses to a black hole should settle down to a Kerr spacetime. The horizon area cannot decrease by Hawking's area theorem, and the Bondi mass cannot increase. Comparing the initial data with the final Kerr state yields . A counterexample would therefore cast doubt on weak cosmic censorship, which the heuristic assumes. A proof would sharpen the positive mass theorem [5], which is the case .
In the time-symmetric case , the dominant energy condition becomes . Apparent horizons are then minimal surfaces, and an outermost one minimizes area among enclosing surfaces, so . This is the Riemannian Penrose inequality. For general the Jang equation and generalized Jang equations relate the spacetime problem to the Riemannian one, but the reduction is not known to preserve the sharp constant [7]. Bray and Khuri proposed a variant using generalized apparent horizons, and Carrasco and Mars found a counterexample to it [8].
References
- R. Penrose, "Naked singularities", Ann. New York Acad. Sci. 224 (1973), 125–134. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1973.tb41447.x
- G. Huisken and T. Ilmanen, "The inverse mean curvature flow and the Riemannian Penrose inequality", J. Differential Geom. 59 (2001), 353–437. doi:10.4310/jdg/1090349447
- H. L. Bray, "Proof of the Riemannian Penrose inequality using the positive mass theorem", J. Differential Geom. 59 (2001), 177–267. doi:10.4310/jdg/1090349428
- H. L. Bray and D. A. Lee, "On the Riemannian Penrose inequality in dimensions less than eight", Duke Math. J. 148 (2009), 81–106. doi:10.1215/00127094-2009-020
- R. Schoen and S.-T. Yau, "Proof of the positive mass theorem. II", Comm. Math. Phys. 79 (1981), 231–260. doi:10.1007/BF01942062
- I. Ben-Dov, "The Penrose inequality and apparent horizons", Phys. Rev. D 70 (2004), 124031. doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.70.124031
- M. Mars, "Present status of the Penrose inequality", Classical Quantum Gravity 26 (2009), 193001. arXiv:0906.5566
- A. Carrasco and M. Mars, "A counterexample to a recent version of the Penrose conjecture", Classical Quantum Gravity 27 (2010), 062001. arXiv:0911.0883
- E. Malec and N. Ó Murchadha, "Trapped surfaces and the Penrose inequality in spherically symmetric geometries", Phys. Rev. D 49 (1994), 6931–6934. doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.49.6931
- M. Khuri and H. Kunduri, "The spacetime Penrose inequality for cohomogeneity one initial data", Adv. Theor. Math. Phys. 29 (2025), 1905–1943. doi:10.4310/ATMP.251120040338
- B. Allen, E. Bryden, D. Kazaras and M. Khuri, "Proof of the spacetime Penrose inequality with suboptimal constant in the asymptotically flat and asymptotically hyperboloidal regimes", preprint (2025). arXiv:2504.10641
- C. Dong, "The Penrose conjecture for initial data sets satisfying a 2-convexity condition", preprint (2026). arXiv:2607.20741
- H. Bray, T. Dolmen, M. Khuri and D. Schmidt, "Proof of the Penrose conjecture for maximally parameterized initial data sets", preprint (2026). arXiv:2610.20559
- OpenAI, "The spacetime Penrose inequality and enclosing area", preprint (2026). github.com/openai/math
- Wikipedia, Penrose inequality.
Source: ProofAtlas open problems; D. Xu, 'The Spacetime Penrose Inequality: Conditional Results for Stable MOTS and General Trapped Surfaces,' arXiv:2512.04137v5 (2025).
Progress summary
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Solutions 5
Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims sharp spacetime Penrose inequalities for invariant ADM mass and minimum enclosing area in three and four spatial dimensions. Under their respective designated-end conventions, the neutral numerical results allow arbitrary second fundamental form, nonzero momentum, disconnected weakly future trapped boundary and finitely many ends. The designated-end area classes differ; they are not identified with one another.See full solution
Scope relative to this problem: The source uses invariant ADM mass and full minimum-enclosing-area conventions under the stated decay, dominant energy and weak future-trapping assumptions. Its three-dimensional admissible subclass addresses the target enclosing-area inequality, while higher-dimensional or additional-end formulations retain their own designated-end classes. No equality rigidity beyond the source hypotheses is inferred.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math
- OpenAI-260-03-Spacetime-Penrose-inequalities-enclosing-area-charge-and-rigidity.pdfOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. Claims the sharp spacetime Penrose inequality for smooth one-ended initial-data exteriors in every spatial dimension n ≥ 3, under the dominant energy condition, weak future trapping, the stated differentiated decay and positive enclosing area. These hypotheses force the ADM energy-momentum to be future timelike.See full solution
Scope relative to this problem: The source uses invariant ADM mass and full minimum-enclosing-area conventions under the stated decay, dominant energy and weak future-trapping assumptions. Its three-dimensional admissible subclass addresses the target enclosing-area inequality, while higher-dimensional or additional-end formulations retain their own designated-end classes. No equality rigidity beyond the source hypotheses is inferred.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math
- OpenAI-260-09-The-spacetime-Penrose-inequality-and-enclosing-area.pdfOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. Claims to give a detailed conformal-flow proof of the numerical Riemannian Penrose inequality in every dimension n ≥ 3 for complete asymptotically flat exteriors with nonnegative scalar curvature and full compact frontiers that are outer minimizing and locally perimeter minimizing. The metric extends smoothly through the possibly singular frontier; neither spin nor frontier connectedness is assumed.See full solution
Scope relative to this problem: This is a Riemannian numerical Penrose companion, with zero second fundamental form, nonnegative scalar curvature and the stated outer/local perimeter-minimizing full-frontier hypotheses. Its three-dimensional subcase is time-symmetric progress toward the spacetime target; its all-dimensional numerical statement does not by itself address arbitrary extrinsic curvature or spacetime rigidity.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math
- OpenAI-260-10-Conformal-flow-and-the-Riemannian-Penrose-inequality-with-minimizing-frontiers.pdfOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims that equality in the spacetime Penrose inequality identifies the original initial data as a spacelike slice of a Schwarzschild–Tangherlini exterior, smoothly attached to its horizon, under the stated outermostness and decay hypotheses. Claims this in every spatial dimension n ≥ 3 for a strong-decay exterior class and for weaker decay in dimensions three and four.See full solution
Scope relative to this problem: This is equality rigidity under the stated outermostness and decay hypotheses, recovering original data as a Schwarzschild-Tangherlini spacelike exterior slice attached smoothly to its horizon. Strong decay covers every n>=3; weaker-decay scope covers dimensions three and four. It is an equality-classification companion, not a standalone assertion of the numerical inequality under every target hypothesis.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math
- OpenAI-260-11-Equality-and-rigidity-in-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality.pdfOpen
Claimed by OpenAI. The manuscript claims graph and conformal deformations of trapped initial-data exteriors in three and four spatial dimensions. The resulting metrics have nonnegative scalar curvature, strictly negative inner mean curvature, a lower bound for every enclosing cut and arbitrarily small upper error in ADM energy. It also gives a four-dimensional maximal vacuum construction retaining a noncompact decaying second fundamental form.See full solution
Scope relative to this problem: This companion provides graph and conformal deformation estimates in three and four spatial dimensions: nonnegative scalar curvature, negative inner mean curvature, enclosing-cut lower bounds and arbitrarily small upper ADM-energy error. It is supporting geometric progress, not the completed numerical inequality or equality classification by itself; the four-dimensional maximal-vacuum construction retains its noncompact decaying second fundamental form.
GitHub repository: https://github.com/openai/math
- OpenAI-260-12-Boundary-graph-deformations-for-the-spacetime-Penrose-inequality.pdfOpen