Kotschick–Morgan conjecture on the structure of Donaldson wallcrossing terms

Let $S$ be a rational algebraic surface, let $C$ be the first Chern class of a differentiable complex vector bundle on $S$, and let $e$ be the corresponding Donaldson-invariant grading. For a class $\xi$ of type $(C,d)$, write $\delta^S_{\xi,e}$ for the associated wallcrossing term, and let $x$ denote a homology variable. Kotschick–Morgan conjecture. $\delta^S_{\xi,e}(x^e)$ is a polynomial in $\xi x$ and $x^2$ whose coefficients depend only on $\xi^2$, $e$, and the homotopy type of $S$. This conjecture describes the universal structure expected for Donaldson wallcrossing terms; the supplied text gives no evidence of a resolution.