Hardy–Littlewood's binary Goldbach asymptotic conjecture

Let r2(N)r_2'(N) denote the number of representations of NN as a sum of two primes, and let S(N)\mathfrak{S}(N) be the singular series

S(N)=p(1+cp(N)(p1)2)=pN(11(p1)2)pN(1+1p1).\mathfrak{S}(N)=\prod_p\left(1+\frac{c_p(N)}{(p-1)^2}\right)=\prod_{p\nmid N}\left(1-\frac{1}{(p-1)^2}\right)\prod_{p\mid N}\left(1+\frac{1}{p-1}\right).

For even integers NN, let r2(N)r_2(N) denote the corresponding von Mangoldt-weighted representation count. Hardy–Littlewood's conjecture. As NN\to\infty through even integers,

r2(N)S(N)N,r_2(N)\sim \mathfrak{S}(N)N,

Equivalently,

r2(N)S(N)N(logN)2.r_2'(N)\sim \mathfrak{S}(N)\frac{N}{(\log N)^2}.

This is the quantitative form of the binary Goldbach conjecture: it predicts not only that every sufficiently large even integer has a representation as the sum of two primes, but also the precise asymptotic number of such representations. The conjecture remains unresolved.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Lasse Grimmelt and Gautami Bhowmik, “The exceptional set of the Goldbach problem”, arXiv:2607.27282 (2026).

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