Aspelmeier's critical variance conjecture for the SK free energy

Let FN,βF_{N,\beta} denote the free energy of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model with system size NN and inverse temperature β\beta. At the critical temperature, β=1\beta=1.

Aspelmeier's conjecture. The variance satisfies

Var(FN,β=1)=16log⁡N+O(1).{\mathsf{Var}}(F_{N,\beta=1})=\frac16\log N+O(1).

This prediction was obtained using non-rigorous physics methods and concerns the fluctuation scale at the phase transition. It has since been confirmed in the paper: the critical variance has logarithmic growth with the stated leading constant.

References

Primary source

Hang Du and Brice Huang, “Fluctuations of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick free energy at critical temperature”, arXiv:2607.02172 (2026).

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