Aspelmeier's critical variance conjecture for the SK free energy
Let denote the free energy of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model with system size and inverse temperature . At the critical temperature, .
Aspelmeier's conjecture. The variance satisfies
This prediction was obtained using non-rigorous physics methods and concerns the fluctuation scale at the phase transition. It has since been confirmed in the paper: the critical variance has logarithmic growth with the stated leading constant.
References
Primary source
Hang Du and Brice Huang, “Fluctuations of the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick free energy at critical temperature”, arXiv:2607.02172 (2026).
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