Cohen–Lenstra–Martinet conjecture for class groups of Γ-extensions

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Let SS) be a finite set of primes not containing any divisor of 2∣Γ∣2|\Gamma|, let Γ∞⊂Γ\Gamma_\infty\subset\Gamma have order 11 or 22, and let F(Γ∞,X)\mathcal{F}(\Gamma_\infty,X) be the family of Galois extensions K/QK/\mathbf{Q} with group Γ\Gamma, with Γ∞\Gamma_\infty as an archimedean decomposition group, and with product of ramified primes at most XX. Write ClKS=ClK⊗ZZ(S)\mathrm{Cl}^S_K=\mathrm{Cl}_K\otimes_{\mathbf{Z}}\mathbf{Z}_{(S)}. For a finite Z(S)[Γ]\mathbf{Z}_{(S)}[\Gamma]-module HH, assume HΓH^\Gamma is trivial. Cohen–Lenstra–Martinet conjecture. There is a real number cc, depending on Γ\Gamma, Γ∞\Gamma_\infty, and SS, such that the probability that ClKS≅H\mathrm{Cl}^S_K\cong H approaches

c∣HΓ∞∣−1∣Aut⁡Γ(H)∣−1c|H^{\Gamma_\infty}|^{-1}|\operatorname{Aut}_\Gamma(H)|^{-1}

as X→∞X\to\infty. This is a formulation of the Cohen–Lenstra–Martinet heuristics for Γ\Gamma-extensions, supported by geometric and function-field evidence; the asserted limiting distribution remains conjectural in this generality.

References

Primary source

Jordan S. Ellenberg, “Recent Progress around Cohen-Lenstra Heuristics”, arXiv:2606.06024 (2026).

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