The bubble-tree blow-up and comparison conjecture for KSBA moduli

From papers

Let MNM_N be the KSBA moduli stack of index one covers, let MNBubM_N^{\operatorname{Bub}} be the moduli stack of bubble-tree index one cover DM stacks, and let MNlciM_N^{\operatorname{lci}} be the moduli stack of lci covers. The relevant locus in MNM_N is the locus whose corresponding surfaces contain bad simple elliptic or cusp singularities with embedded dimension at least 66. Bubble-tree blow-up and comparison conjecture. The moduli stack MNBubM_N^{\operatorname{Bub}} can be obtained from MNM_N by finitely many blow-ups along this locus. Moreover, there is a birational morphism

MNBubMNlciM_N^{\operatorname{Bub}}\dashrightarrow M_N^{\operatorname{lci}}

for which both stacks admit contraction morphisms to MNM_N.

This conjecture predicts that the bubble-tree compactification is birationally related to the lci-cover compactification and is obtained from the KSBA space by resolving the specified singularity locus. Its status is not established in the supplied text.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Yunfeng Jiang, “Enumerative Geometry on KSBA moduli spaces”, arXiv:2605.19923 (2026).

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