The bubble-tree blow-up and comparison conjecture for KSBA moduli

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Let MNM_N be the KSBA moduli stack of index one covers, let MNBub⁡M_N^{\operatorname{Bub}} be the moduli stack of bubble-tree index one cover DM stacks, and let MNlci⁡M_N^{\operatorname{lci}} be the moduli stack of lci covers. The relevant locus in MNM_N is the locus whose corresponding surfaces contain bad simple elliptic or cusp singularities with embedded dimension at least 66. Bubble-tree blow-up and comparison conjecture. The moduli stack MNBub⁡M_N^{\operatorname{Bub}} can be obtained from MNM_N by finitely many blow-ups along this locus. Moreover, there is a birational morphism

MNBub⁡⇢MNlci⁡M_N^{\operatorname{Bub}}\dashrightarrow M_N^{\operatorname{lci}}

for which both stacks admit contraction morphisms to MNM_N.

This conjecture predicts that the bubble-tree compactification is birationally related to the lci-cover compactification and is obtained from the KSBA space by resolving the specified singularity locus. Its status is not established in the supplied text.

References

Primary source

Yunfeng Jiang, “Enumerative Geometry on KSBA moduli spaces”, arXiv:2605.19923 (2026).

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