Monotonicity conjecture for norms of uniformly supported random walks

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Let d1d\ge 1. Suppose D(x)D(x) has finite support U\mathcal{U}. If D(x)D(x) is uniformly distributed on U\mathcal{U}, and if every xUx\in \mathcal{U} is on the boundary of Conv(U)\operatorname{Conv}(\mathcal{U}), then the map zxzz\mapsto |x|_z is monotone for each xx. Monotonicity conjecture. Under these hypotheses, the norm xz|x|_z is monotone as a function of zz for every xx. This conjecture is motivated by the observed interpolation between the 2\ell^2 and \ell^\infty limits in the examples discussed above, but no proof is given.

Progress summary

Open

The conjecture remains unproved: the available counterexample uses unequal probabilities and therefore does not apply.

Liu and Slade formulate the conjecture in 2026: for a uniformly supported random walk whose support lies on the boundary of its convex hull, the norm should vary monotonically with the parameter zz. They explicitly state that they have no proof.

May 2026 status

Liu and Slade report a nonmonotonicity example in dimension 22, but its step distribution is nonuniform, so it does not address the conjecture. No proof, uniform counterexample, or corroborated settlement is reported.

Current status (as of August 2026): The conjecture is open; nonmonotonicity is known for a nonuniform distribution, but the uniformly supported case remains unresolved.

Sources
Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Yucheng Liu and Gordon Slade, “Crossover from subcritical to critical decay: random walk, self-avoiding walk, percolation”, arXiv:2605.15545 (2026).

Solutions 1

Counterexample

A uniform twelve-point counterexample to norm monotonicity

Conjecture 3.6 of Liu and Slade, arXiv:2605.15545v1, is false. Take the step distribution uniform on

U={uZ2:u12+u22=25},\mathcal U=\{u\in\mathbb Z^2:u_1^2+u_2^2=25\},

and take x=(4,3)x=(4,3). We will prove that zxzz\mapsto |x|_z is neither nondecreasing nor nonincreasing on (0,1)(0,1).

The source's Example 3.7 treats a nonuniform distribution; the equal-weight support below satisfies the uniformity assumption of the conjecture.

The idea is that the two endpoint limits of this norm are both 55, but its fourth-moment expansion forces it strictly below 55 near z=1z=1.

1. The support satisfies the hypotheses

The set U\mathcal U consists of the twelve points

(±5,0),(0,±5),(±4,±3),(±3,±4),\begin{gathered} (\pm5,0),\quad(0,\pm5),\\ (\pm4,\pm3),\quad(\pm3,\pm4), \end{gathered}

with independent signs. Give each point probability 1/121/12. This distribution is invariant under coordinate sign changes and coordinate interchange, and it has finite support. Its support generates Z2\mathbb Z^2: indeed,

2(4,3)+2(4,3)3(5,0)=(1,0),2(4,3)+2(4,-3)-3(5,0)=(1,0),

and interchanging coordinates gives (0,1)(0,1).

Every support point is a strict vertex of its convex hull. For fixed uUu\in\mathcal U, the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality gives uv25u\cdot v\le25 for every vUv\in\mathcal U, with equality only when v=uv=u. Thus the linear functional vuvv\mapsto u\cdot v exposes uu uniquely. In particular, every support point lies on the required boundary.

2. The defining variational formula

Here e1=(1,0)e_1=(1,0), and |\cdot| without a subscript denotes the Euclidean norm.

Let UU have this distribution and write

M(μ)=EeμU.M(\mu)=\mathbb E e^{\mu\cdot U}. Kz={μR2:M(μ)z1}.K_z=\{\mu\in\mathbb R^2:M(\mu)\le z^{-1}\}.

For the random-walk norm in the conjecture, the mass mz>0m_z>0 and the norm are characterized by

M(mze1)=z1.M(m_z e_1)=z^{-1}. xz=1mzmaxμKzμx.|x|_z=\frac{1}{m_z}\max_{\mu\in K_z}\mu\cdot x.

The axis atoms make KzK_z compact, and

M(me1)=1+cosh(5m)6+cosh(4m)+cosh(3m)3.\begin{aligned} M(me_1)={}&\frac{1+\cosh(5m)}6\\ &+\frac{\cosh(4m)+\cosh(3m)}3. \end{aligned}

Consequently mM(me1)m\mapsto M(me_1) is strictly increasing from 11 to infinity on [0,)[0,\infty). We may therefore parameterize zz by

z(m)=M(me1)1,m>0,z(m)=M(me_1)^{-1},\qquad m>0,

so that mz(m)=mm_{z(m)}=m and z(m)1z(m)\uparrow1 as m0m\downarrow0.

3. An analytic expansion of the actual maximizer

Set n=x/5=(4/5,3/5)n=x/5=(4/5,3/5), so n=1|n|=1. Introduce the moments

s=EU12=252,A=EU14=4332,B=EU12U22=96.\begin{aligned} s&=\mathbb E U_1^2=\frac{25}{2},\\ A&=\mathbb E U_1^4=\frac{433}{2},\\ B&=\mathbb E U_1^2U_2^2=96. \end{aligned}

Let II denote the two-by-two identity matrix. Coordinate symmetry gives EUUT=sI\mathbb E UU^{\mathsf T}=sI. Define

Q(v)=E(vU)4=A(v14+v24)+6Bv12v22.\begin{aligned} Q(v)&=\mathbb E(v\cdot U)^4\\ &=A(v_1^4+v_2^4)+6Bv_1^2v_2^2. \end{aligned}

For t>0t>0, put

G(t,v)=M(tv)M(te1)t.G(t,v)=\frac{M(\sqrt t\,v)-M(\sqrt t\,e_1)}{t}.

Since the support is finite and centrally symmetric, the power series of M(mv)M(mv) contains only even powers of mm. It follows that GG extends real-analytically to a neighborhood of (0,n)(0,n), with

G(t,v)=s2(v21)+t24(Q(v)A)+O(t2).\begin{aligned} G(t,v)={}&\frac{s}{2}(|v|^2-1)\\ &+\frac{t}{24}\bigl(Q(v)-A\bigr)+O(t^2). \end{aligned}

Here the remainder is analytic locally in both tt and vv. Consider the equations

G(t,v)=0,vG(t,v)=λn.G(t,v)=0,\qquad \nabla_vG(t,v)=\lambda n.

At t=0t=0 they hold with v=nv=n and λ=s\lambda=s. Their Jacobian with respect to (v1,v2,λ)(v_1,v_2,\lambda) at that point is

(sn1sn20s0n10sn2),\begin{pmatrix} sn_1&sn_2&0\\ s&0&-n_1\\ 0&s&-n_2 \end{pmatrix},

whose determinant is s2(n12+n22)=625/4s^2(n_1^2+n_2^2)=625/4. The analytic implicit-function theorem therefore supplies analytic solutions v(t)v(t) and λ(t)\lambda(t) near 00, with v(0)=nv(0)=n and λ(0)=s>0\lambda(0)=s>0.

These solutions give the global maximizer, not merely a stationary point. For t>0t>0,

v2G(t,v)=2M(tv)\nabla_v^2G(t,v)=\nabla^2M(\sqrt t\,v)

is positive definite, since the support spans R2\mathbb R^2. If G(t,w)0G(t,w)\le0, convexity and G(t,v(t))=0G(t,v(t))=0 give

λ(t)n(wv(t))G(t,w)0.\lambda(t)n\cdot\bigl(w-v(t)\bigr) \le G(t,w)\le0.

For all sufficiently small positive tt, we have λ(t)>0\lambda(t)>0, and hence nwnv(t)n\cdot w\le n\cdot v(t). The feasible set G(t,w)0G(t,w)\le0 is precisely Kz(t)/tK_{z(\sqrt t)}/\sqrt t. Thus

xz(t)=5nv(t).|x|_{z(\sqrt t)}=5n\cdot v(t).

Differentiating G(t,v(t))=0G(t,v(t))=0 at t=0t=0 yields

snv(0)+Q(n)A24=0.s\,n\cdot v'(0)+\frac{Q(n)-A}{24}=0.

Since n12+n22=1n_1^2+n_2^2=1, the required fourth-moment difference is

AQ(n)=2(A3B)n12n22=20592625.\begin{aligned} A-Q(n)&=2(A-3B)n_1^2n_2^2\\ &=-\frac{20592}{625}. \end{aligned}

It follows that

nv(0)=AQ(n)24s=171615625.\begin{aligned} n\cdot v'(0)&=\frac{A-Q(n)}{24s}\\ &=-\frac{1716}{15625}. \end{aligned}

The analyticity established above now gives

xz(m)=517163125m2+O(m4).|x|_{z(m)}=5-\frac{1716}{3125}m^2+O(m^4).

The remainder divided by m2m^2 tends to zero. Therefore xz(m)<5|x|_{z(m)}<5 for every sufficiently small positive mm, and also

limz1xz=5.\lim_{z\uparrow1}|x|_z=5.

4. The other endpoint and the failure of monotonicity

Here the limit as z0z\downarrow0 can be proved directly. Put L=log(1/z)L=\log(1/z) and

hz=maxμKzμx.h_z=\max_{\mu\in K_z}\mu\cdot x.

Because u15u_1\le5 for every support point and (5,0)(5,0) has probability 1/121/12,

e5mz12M(mze1)e5mz.\frac{e^{5m_z}}{12}\le M(m_ze_1)\le e^{5m_z}.

Consequently

L5mzL+log125.\frac L5\le m_z\le\frac{L+\log12}{5}.

The atom at xx similarly gives hzL+log12h_z\le L+\log12. For the opposite bound, take μ=Lx/25\mu=Lx/25. Since ux25u\cdot x\le25 for all uUu\in\mathcal U, every summand in M(μ)M(\mu) is at most eLe^L, so μKz\mu\in K_z and μx=L\mu\cdot x=L. Hence hzLh_z\ge L. Combining these inequalities gives

5LL+log12xz,xz5(L+log12)L.\begin{gathered} \frac{5L}{L+\log12}\le |x|_z,\\ |x|_z\le\frac{5(L+\log12)}L. \end{gathered}

Thus limz0xz=5\lim_{z\downarrow0}|x|_z=5 as well.

A monotone function on (0,1)(0,1) whose two endpoint limits both equal 55 must be identically 55. Our expansion proves that this norm is strictly smaller than 55 near z=1z=1. More explicitly, choose such a point z2z_2; the two endpoint limits supply z1<z2<z3z_1<z_2<z_3 with

xz1>xz2<xz3.|x|_{z_1}>|x|_{z_2}<|x|_{z_3}.

This disproves the conjectured monotonicity while satisfying all its uniform-support and boundary hypotheses.

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