Manin's conjecture for rational points on smooth Fano varieties
Manin's conjecture for rational points on smooth Fano varieties
Let be a number field and let be a smooth Fano variety over , so that is ample. Fix an adelic metrization of the anticanonical bundle , with associated height function . For , write
Suppose that is not thin. Manin's conjecture. There exists a thin set such that
as , where is the Picard rank, is the alpha constant of the nef cone of curves, is the size of , and is the Tamagawa number. This is a central prediction for the distribution of rational points on Fano varieties. It is largely open even for del Pezzo surfaces, with the cited results covering several toric, quintic, and individual quartic cases but no known smooth cubic surface example.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Sho Tanimoto, “Homological sieve and Manin's conjecture”, arXiv:2605.09896 (2026).
Additional references
12 papers in this index state this conjecture (1996–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2506.17071, arXiv:2505.02204, arXiv:2311.02012, arXiv:2207.03645, arXiv:2207.04348, arXiv:1812.07148, arXiv:1807.07995, arXiv:1505.04555, arXiv:math/0511041, arXiv:math/9812082, arXiv:alg-geom/9602013.
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