The linear variance conjecture for signatures of 2-bridge knots

Let T(c)T(c) be the set of objects with crossing number cc considered in the paper, and let the variance of their signatures be computed with respect to the uniform distribution on T(c)T(c). Linear variance conjecture. The variance over T(c)T(c) for crossing number cc is approximately

c5+.336.c-5+.336.

The numerical tables for even and odd crossing numbers suggest an approximately linear growth law, but no proof or resolution is supplied here.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Cody Baker, Moshe Cohen, Henry Dam, Rebecca Felber, Neal Madras, Ritvik Saha and Daisy Thackrah, “A central limit theorem for the signatures of 2-bridge knots”, arXiv:2604.21107 (2026).

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