Conjectural unboundedness of third covariant Ricci derivatives along Kähler–Ricci flow

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Let XX be a compact Kähler manifold with semiample canonical bundle, and let ω∙(t)\omega^\bullet(t) be an immortal normalized Kähler–Ricci flow on XX. Let f:X→Bf:X\to B be the associated Iitaka fibration, let SS denote its singular-fiber locus, and let K⋐X∖SK\Subset X\setminus S be compact. Write ∇ω∙(t),3Ric⁡(ω∙(t))\nabla^{\omega^\bullet(t),3}\operatorname{Ric}(\omega^\bullet(t)) for the third covariant derivative of the Ricci curvature with respect to ω∙(t)\omega^\bullet(t).

Unboundedness conjecture. Under the assumptions above, the quantity

∣∇ω∙(t),3Ric⁡(ω∙(t))∣ω∙(t)\left|\nabla^{\omega^\bullet(t),3}\operatorname{Ric}(\omega^\bullet(t))\right|_{\omega^\bullet(t)}

is in general not bounded over K×[0,+∞)K\times[0,+\infty).

The conjecture concerns the failure of uniform higher-order Ricci estimates away from singular fibers. The source explicitly identifies the boundedness question near singular fibers as open, but does not state a general resolution of this conjecture.

References

Primary source

Wenrui Kong, “Higher-order Ricci estimates along immortal Kähler-Ricci flows”, arXiv:2603.24380 (2026).

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