The orbit covariance summability conjecture for Collatz drift increments

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Let Δi\Delta_i be the odd-skeleton drift increments along a Collatz orbit, and let Cov⁡orbit(Δ0,Δh)\operatorname{Cov}_{\mathrm{orbit}}(\Delta_0,\Delta_h) denote their orbit covariance at lag hh. Orbit covariance summability conjecture. For every Collatz orbit with odd-step density ρ<1/log⁡23\rho<1/\log_2 3,

∑h=1∞∣Cov⁡orbit(Δ0,Δh)∣<∞.\sum_{h=1}^{\infty}\left|\operatorname{Cov}_{\mathrm{orbit}}(\Delta_0,\Delta_h)\right|<\infty.

The corresponding ensemble covariance estimate is proved in the paper, but the pointwise orbit version is explicitly identified as open and is substantially harder.

References

Primary source

Edward Y. Chang, “Exploring Collatz Dynamics with Human-LLM Collaboration”, arXiv:2603.11066 (2026).

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