Pairwise negative correlation conjecture for the uniform forest measure

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Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be a finite connected graph, and let PUF\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{UF}} denote the uniform forest measure on GG. A probability measure on {0,1}E\{0,1\}^E satisfies pairwise negative correlation (p-NC) if, for all distinct edges e,f∈Ee,f\in E,

μ[ω(e)=ω(f)=1]⩽μ[ω(e)=1]μ[ω(f)=1].\mu\big[\omega(e)=\omega(f)=1\big]\leqslant \mu\big[\omega(e)=1\big]\mu\big[\omega(f)=1\big].

Uniform forest p-NC conjecture. The measure PUF\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{UF}} satisfies the p-NC property.

This is presented as a special case of the random-cluster p-NC conjecture and of the conjectured p-NC property for the arboreal gas model. Its status is not resolved in the supplied text.

References

Primary source

Pengfei Tang and Zibo Zhang, “Pairwise Negative Correlation for Uniform Spanning Subgraphs of the Complete Graph”, arXiv:2603.10738 (2026).

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