Pairwise negative correlation conjecture for the uniform forest measure

Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be a finite connected graph, and let PUF\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{UF}} denote the uniform forest measure on GG. A probability measure on {0,1}E\{0,1\}^E satisfies pairwise negative correlation (p-NC) if, for all distinct edges e,fEe,f\in E,

μ[ω(e)=ω(f)=1]μ[ω(e)=1]μ[ω(f)=1].\mu\big[\omega(e)=\omega(f)=1\big]\leqslant \mu\big[\omega(e)=1\big]\mu\big[\omega(f)=1\big].

Uniform forest p-NC conjecture. The measure PUF\mathbb{P}_{\mathrm{UF}} satisfies the p-NC property.

This is presented as a special case of the random-cluster p-NC conjecture and of the conjectured p-NC property for the arboreal gas model. Its status is not resolved in the supplied text.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Pengfei Tang and Zibo Zhang, “Pairwise Negative Correlation for Uniform Spanning Subgraphs of the Complete Graph”, arXiv:2603.10738 (2026).

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