Rodríguez's half-integer curvature conjecture for binary Bayesian networks

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Let a bitnet be a binary Bayesian network equipped with its Fisher information metric, and let ⟨R⟩\langle R\rangle denote its volume-averaged Ricci scalar. Rodríguez's conjecture. For any bitnet with Fisher information metric,

⟨R⟩∈12Z+.\langle R\rangle \in \tfrac{1}{2}\mathbb{Z}^+.

The paper resolves the conjecture only partially: it proves the claim for tree-structured and complete-graph bitnets, but disproves it in general by exhibiting loop counterexamples, including a double-collider network with ⟨R⟩=36/5\langle R\rangle=36/5.

References

Primary source

Carlos C. Rodriguez, “Quantization of Ricci Curvature in Information Geometry”, arXiv:2603.10054 (2026).

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