Göttsche–Kool universal-function conjecture for rank-two virtual Segre numbers

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Let SS be the surface and MM the moduli space defined above, let s∈Zs\in\mathbb Z, and let α∈K(S)\alpha\in K(S) have rk⁡(α)=s\operatorname{rk}(\alpha)=s. The universal functions Qs,Rs,Ts,Vs,Ws,XsQ_s,R_s,T_s,V_s,W_s,X_s lie in C[[z]]\mathbb C[[z]], while Ss,S1,s,Ys,Y1,s,Zs,Z11,sS_s,S_{1,s},Y_s,Y_{1,s},Z_s,Z_{11,s} lie in C[[z12]]\mathbb C[[z^{\frac12}]]. Set

z=t(1+(1−s2)t)1−s2.z=t\left(1+\left(1-\tfrac{s}{2}\right)t\right)^{1-\frac{s}{2}}.

The functions Vs,Ws,Xs,Qs,Rs,TsV_s,W_s,X_s,Q_s,R_s,T_s are given by the formulas in the conjecture, with Ys,Y1,s,Zs,Z11,s,Ss,S1,sY_s,Y_{1,s},Z_s,Z_{11,s},S_s,S_{1,s} algebraic functions. Göttsche–Kool conjecture. For every such α\alpha, the virtual Segre series satisfies

Sα[p′,x′]=Uα[p′,x′]∣z12vd⁡M,\mathscr S_\alpha[p',x']=\mathscr U_\alpha[p',x']\Big|_{z^{\frac12\operatorname{vd} M}},

where

Uα[p′,x′]=22−χh+K2Vsc2(α)Wsc1(α)2XsχhYsc1(α)KZsK2ex′2Qs+c1(α)x′Rs+x′KSs+p′Ts×∑a(−1)ac1SW(a)Y1,sc1(α)aeax′S1,sZ11,sa2.\begin{aligned} \mathscr U_\alpha[p',x']&=2^{2-\chi_{\rm h}+K^2}V_s^{c_2(\alpha)}W_s^{c_1(\alpha)^2}X_s^{\chi_{\rm h}}Y_s^{c_1(\alpha)K}Z_s^{K^2}e^{x'^2Q_s+c_1(\alpha)x'R_s+x'KS_s+p'T_s}\\ &\quad\times\sum_a(-1)^{ac_1}\mathcal{SW}(a)Y_{1,s}^{c_1(\alpha)a}e^{ax'S_{1,s}}Z_{11,s}^{a^2}. \end{aligned}

This is the rank-two adjustment of the Göttsche–Kool conjecture and gives a universal description of virtual Segre numbers in terms of surface invariants and Seiberg–Witten basic classes. The supplied text does not state whether the conjecture has been resolved.

References

Primary source

Elias Furrer and Jan Manschot, “Universal Functions for Topological Correlators”, arXiv:2602.20279 (2026).

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