Göttsche–Kool universal-function conjecture for rank-two virtual Segre numbers

Let SS be the surface and MM the moduli space defined above, let sZs\in\mathbb Z, and let αK(S)\alpha\in K(S) have rk(α)=s\operatorname{rk}(\alpha)=s. The universal functions Qs,Rs,Ts,Vs,Ws,XsQ_s,R_s,T_s,V_s,W_s,X_s lie in C[[z]]\mathbb C[[z]], while Ss,S1,s,Ys,Y1,s,Zs,Z11,sS_s,S_{1,s},Y_s,Y_{1,s},Z_s,Z_{11,s} lie in C[[z12]]\mathbb C[[z^{\frac12}]]. Set

z=t(1+(1s2)t)1s2.z=t\left(1+\left(1-\tfrac{s}{2}\right)t\right)^{1-\frac{s}{2}}.

The functions Vs,Ws,Xs,Qs,Rs,TsV_s,W_s,X_s,Q_s,R_s,T_s are given by the formulas in the conjecture, with Ys,Y1,s,Zs,Z11,s,Ss,S1,sY_s,Y_{1,s},Z_s,Z_{11,s},S_s,S_{1,s} algebraic functions. Göttsche–Kool conjecture. For every such α\alpha, the virtual Segre series satisfies

Sα[p,x]=Uα[p,x]z12vdM,\mathscr S_\alpha[p',x']=\mathscr U_\alpha[p',x']\Big|_{z^{\frac12\operatorname{vd} M}},

where

Uα[p,x]=22χh+K2Vsc2(α)Wsc1(α)2XsχhYsc1(α)KZsK2ex2Qs+c1(α)xRs+xKSs+pTs×a(1)ac1SW(a)Y1,sc1(α)aeaxS1,sZ11,sa2.\begin{aligned} \mathscr U_\alpha[p',x']&=2^{2-\chi_{\rm h}+K^2}V_s^{c_2(\alpha)}W_s^{c_1(\alpha)^2}X_s^{\chi_{\rm h}}Y_s^{c_1(\alpha)K}Z_s^{K^2}e^{x'^2Q_s+c_1(\alpha)x'R_s+x'KS_s+p'T_s}\\ &\quad\times\sum_a(-1)^{ac_1}\mathcal{SW}(a)Y_{1,s}^{c_1(\alpha)a}e^{ax'S_{1,s}}Z_{11,s}^{a^2}. \end{aligned}

This is the rank-two adjustment of the Göttsche–Kool conjecture and gives a universal description of virtual Segre numbers in terms of surface invariants and Seiberg–Witten basic classes. The supplied text does not state whether the conjecture has been resolved.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Elias Furrer and Jan Manschot, “Universal Functions for Topological Correlators”, arXiv:2602.20279 (2026).

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