Pantone's 123-avoiding derangement proportion conjecture

From papers

Let CnC_n be the nnth Catalan number, and let dnd_n be the number of derangements among the 123123-avoiding permutations of length nn. The source considers an asymptotic form dnδCnd_n\sim \delta C_n for a limiting proportion δ\delta. Pantone's conjecture. The limiting proportion of derangements among 123123-avoiding permutations is equal to 9/169/16. This is a numerical conjecture based on the first 200200 enumeration terms and differential approximants.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Vincent Vatter, “An assortment of problems in permutation patterns: unimodality, equivalence, derangements, and sorting”, arXiv:2602.16355 (2026).

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