The Asymptotic Shape Conjecture for Kostant-positive permutations

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Let λ=(λ1,…,λr)∈Λm\lambda=(\lambda_1,\ldots,\lambda_r)\in\Lambda_m be a Young diagram with λ1\lambda_1 boxes in its first row, and let λ(n)\lambda^{(n)} be obtained by adding a first row of nn boxes, where n≥λ1n\geq\lambda_1. Let km+n+(λ(n))\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{+}(\lambda^{(n)}) and km+n−(λ(n))\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{-}(\lambda^{(n)}) count the Kostant-positive and Kostant-negative permutations in Sm+n\mathrm S_{m+n} of shape λ(n)\lambda^{(n)}, respectively, and let SYTm+n(λ(n))\mathtt{SYT}_{m+n}(\lambda^{(n)}) denote the standard Young tableaux of that shape. Asymptotic Shape Conjecture. For every m≥0m\geq0 and λ∈Λm\lambda\in\Lambda_m, the proportion of permutations of shape λ(n)\lambda^{(n)} that are Kostant positive satisfies

km+n+(λ(n))∣SYTm+n(λ(n))∣2=km+n+(λ(n))km+n+(λ(n))+km+n−(λ(n))⟶1\frac{\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{+}(\lambda^{(n)})}{|\mathtt{SYT}_{m+n}(\lambda^{(n)})|^2}=\frac{\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{+}(\lambda^{(n)})}{\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{+}(\lambda^{(n)})+\mathbf{k}_{m+n}^{-}(\lambda^{(n)})}\longrightarrow1

as n≥λ1n\geq\lambda_1 tends to infinity. This was known for fully commutative permutations, equivalently one-row shapes, and the paper proves it for shapes (1,1)(1,1) and (2,1)(2,1); the general assertion remains open.

References

Primary source

Samuel Creedon and Volodymyr Mazorchuk, “Kostant's problem for permutations of shape (n-2,1,1) and (n-3,2,1)”, arXiv:2601.19537 (2026).

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