The Erdős–Rényi random graph maximum likelihood threshold conjecture

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Let GG be a random graph generated according to the Erdős–Rényi model G(n,c/n)G(n,c/n), where cc is a fixed positive real number, and let dd be the minimum integer such that GG is dd-independent. Maximum likelihood threshold conjecture. The maximum likelihood threshold of GG is d+1d+1 with high probability. This conjecture predicts that the upper bound for maximum likelihood thresholds is sharp for Erdős–Rényi random graphs; it is supported by computational experiments, but no resolution is given here.

References

Primary source

Daniel Irving Bernstein, “Rigidity theory in statistical inference”, arXiv:2601.10864 (2026).

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