Uniform boundedness conjecture for Manin components

Let π:XB\pi:\mathcal X\to B be a good Fano fibration, let λ\lambda be an intersection profile, and let Sλ,Z\mathsf{S}_{\lambda,\mathbb Z} be the corresponding integral section classes. Uniform boundedness conjecture for Manin components. There exist uniform constants B\mathsf B' and C\mathsf C such that, for every αSλ,Z\alpha\in\mathsf{S}_{\lambda,\mathbb Z}, the number of Manin components of class α\alpha is at most B\mathsf B', and every such component MαM_{\alpha} satisfies

#Mα(k)CqKX/B.α+n(1g(B)).\#M_{\alpha}^{\circ}(k)\leq\mathsf Cq^{-K_{\mathcal X/B}.\alpha+n(1-g(B))}.

This uniform estimate is introduced to control the contribution of all Manin components to the standard counting function; the source gives no resolution status.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Brian Lehmann and Sho Tanimoto, “Geometric Manin's conjecture in characteristic p”, arXiv:2601.09227 (2026).

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