All-height version of Manin's conjecture over global function fields

Let π:XB\pi:\mathcal X\to B be a good Fano fibration, let λ\lambda be an intersection profile, let MαM_{\alpha} be the unique Manin component for sufficiently large λ(α)\ell_{\lambda}(\alpha), and let MαM_{\alpha}^{\circ} be its complement of the properly constructible exceptional locus. All-height version of Manin's conjecture. There exist constants c(X,λ)0c(\mathcal X,\lambda)\geq0 and δ>0\delta>0 such that

#Mα(k)=c(X,λ)qKX/B.α+n(1g(B))+O(qKX/B.αδλ(α))\#M_{\alpha}^{\circ}(k)=c(\mathcal X,\lambda)q^{-K_{\mathcal X/B}.\alpha+n(1-g(B))}+O\left(q^{-K_{\mathcal X/B}.\alpha-\delta\ell_{\lambda}(\alpha)}\right)

as λ(α)\ell_{\lambda}(\alpha)\to\infty, where n=dimXηn=\dim\mathcal X_{\eta}. This is compared in the source with analogous proposals of Bourqui and Peyre; no resolution status is supplied.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Brian Lehmann and Sho Tanimoto, “Geometric Manin's conjecture in characteristic p”, arXiv:2601.09227 (2026).

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