Standard Manin conjecture over global function fields

Let π:XB\pi:\mathcal X\to B be a good Fano fibration, let qq be the cardinality of the constant field, and suppose that Xη(K(B))\mathcal X_{\eta}(K(B)) is not thin. With Nstan(π,d)N_{\mathrm{stan}}(\pi,d), r(π)r(\pi), α(Xη)\alpha(\mathcal X_{\eta}), β(Xη)\beta(\mathcal X_{\eta}), and τX(KXη)\tau_{\mathcal X}(-\mathcal K_{\mathcal X_{\eta}}) as defined in the source, Standard Manin conjecture over global function fields.

Nstan(π,d)(1qr(π))1α(Xη)β(Xη)r(π)τX(KXη)qr(π)d(dr(π))ρ(Xη)1N_{\mathrm{stan}}(\pi,d)\sim (1-q^{-r(\pi)})^{-1}\alpha(\mathcal X_{\eta})\beta(\mathcal X_{\eta})r(\pi)\tau_{\mathcal X}(-\mathcal K_{\mathcal X_{\eta}})q^{r(\pi)d}(dr(\pi))^{\rho(\mathcal X_{\eta})-1}

as dd\to\infty through integers. This is explicitly called provisional because the source expects possible periodicity when r(π)r(π)r(\pi)\ne r(\pi)'; no proof in the stated generality is given.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Brian Lehmann and Sho Tanimoto, “Geometric Manin's conjecture in characteristic p”, arXiv:2601.09227 (2026).

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