Harper's conjecture on moments of Möbius character and zeta sums

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Let μ(n)\mu(n) denote the Möbius function. For a large prime rr, let χ\chi range over Dirichlet characters modulo rr; let TT be large, and let qq satisfy 0≤q≤10\leq q\leq 1. For any fixed A>0A>0, consider the averaged 2q2q-moments of the Möbius character sums and of the corresponding Dirichlet polynomials on the unitary line.

Harper's conjecture. For all 0≤q≤10\leq q\leq 1 and any fixed A>0A>0, for large prime rr,

1r−1∑χ  mod  r∣∑n≤xμ(n)χ(n)∣2q≪A(x1+(1−q)log⁡log⁡x)q∀ x≤rA,\frac{1}{r-1}\sum_{\chi\;\text{mod}\;r}\left|\sum_{n\leq x}\mu(n)\chi(n)\right|^{2q}\ll_A\left(\frac{x}{1+(1-q)\sqrt{\log\log x}}\right)^q\qquad\forall\,x\leq r^A,

and, for large real TT,

12T∫−TT∣∑n≤xμ(n)nit∣2q dt≪A(x1+(1−q)log⁡log⁡x)q∀ x≤TA.\frac{1}{2T}\int_{-T}^{T}\left|\sum_{n\leq x}\mu(n)n^{it}\right|^{2q}\,dt\ll_A\left(\frac{x}{1+(1-q)\sqrt{\log\log x}}\right)^q\qquad\forall\,x\leq T^A.

This conjectural extension would imply Möbius cancellation in intervals of length just o(x)o(\sqrt{x}) and in arithmetic progressions with modulus just larger than x\sqrt{x}, including the Möbius analogue of Legendre's conjecture. It remains open; the paper notes that the corresponding Liouville-function character estimate is supported by work of Wang and Xu under the Generalised Riemann Hypothesis and a suitable Ratios Conjecture.

References

Primary source

Adam J. Harper, “Better than squareroot cancellation in number theory”, arXiv:2512.23681 (2025).

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