Bergeron–Venkatesh–Lück torsion growth conjecture for 3-manifolds

Let MM be a compact connected orientable and irreducible 33-manifold with infinite fundamental group and empty or toroidal boundary. A cofinal tower of regular finite-sheeted covers is a sequence

M=M0M1M2M=M_0\twoheadleftarrow M_1\twoheadleftarrow M_2\twoheadleftarrow\cdots

of regular finite-sheeted covers whose corresponding subgroups are cofinal. Let PiP_i be the hyperbolic pieces in the JSJ decomposition of MM. Bergeron–Venkatesh–Lück conjecture. Then MM admits such a tower for which

limnlog(Tor(H1(Mn;Z)))[π1(M):π1(Mn)]=ivol(Pi)6π.\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\frac{\log\left(\left|\operatorname{Tor}(H_1(M_n;\mathbb{Z}))\right|\right)}{[\pi_1(M):\pi_1(M_n)]}=\frac{\sum_i\operatorname{vol}(P_i)}{6\pi}.

This conjecture predicts that torsion in first homology grows at a rate determined by the total volume of the hyperbolic JSJ pieces. The supplied text attributes it to influential work of Bergeron–Venkatesh and Lück but gives no resolution, so its status is left open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jonathan Fruchter, “Virtual homological torsion: abundance versus growth in books of I-bundles”, arXiv:2509.22052 (2025).

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