The arboreal-gas three-point correlation conjecture

Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be a graph and let u,v,w∈Vu,v,w\in V. Let μG,λF\mu^{\text{F}}_{G,\lambda} denote the arboreal gas measure with parameter λ\lambda, and write u↔w, w↔vu\leftrightarrow w,\,w\leftrightarrow v for the event that both connections occur. Arboreal-gas correlation conjecture.

μG,λF(u↔w, w↔v)≥μG,λF(u↔w) μG,λF(w↔v).\mu^{\text{F}}_{G,\lambda}(u\leftrightarrow w,\,w\leftrightarrow v)\geq \mu^{\text{F}}_{G,\lambda}(u\leftrightarrow w)\,\mu^{\text{F}}_{G,\lambda}(w\leftrightarrow v).

This is the arboreal-gas analogue of the Harris correlation inequality. The source states that it is open even for the arboreal gas measure, although it holds for outerplanar graphs by a result proved in the paper.

References

Primary source

Arvind Ayyer, Svante Linusson and Mohan Ravichandran, “The bunkbed problem and the random cluster model”, arXiv:2509.18788 (2025).

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