The alternate arboreal-gas bunkbed conjecture

Let GG be a graph, let TV(G)T\subset V(G) be a set of posts, and let νG,TF\nu^{\text{F}}_{G,T} denote the alternate arboreal gas measure on red-blue edge-colourings, restricted so that no cycle is admissible. An admissible path may change colour only at posts. Write uRRvu\leftrightarrow_{RR}v (respectively, uRBvu\leftrightarrow_{RB}v) when there is an admissible path from uu to vv that starts with a red edge and ends with a red (respectively, blue) edge. Alternate arboreal-gas bunkbed conjecture. For every such G,TG,T and every pair of vertices u,vu,v,

νG,TF(uRRv)νG,TF(uRBv).\nu^{\text{F}}_{G,T}(u\leftrightarrow_{RR}v)\geq \nu^{\text{F}}_{G,T}(u\leftrightarrow_{RB}v).

This is the arboreal-gas analogue of the alternate bunkbed inequality. The corresponding percolation conjecture is already false in general, and the source gives an outerplanar counterexample to this arboreal-gas version.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Arvind Ayyer, Svante Linusson and Mohan Ravichandran, “The bunkbed problem and the random cluster model”, arXiv:2509.18788 (2025).

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