Kahle–Newman Cohen–Lenstra conjecture for random hypertree torsion

Let pp be an odd prime, let TnT_n be the random hypertree in the paper, and let Γn,p\Gamma_{n,p} denote the pp^\infty-torsion subgroup of H1(Tn,Z)H_1(T_n,\mathbb{Z}). For a finite abelian group GG, write Aut(G)\operatorname{Aut}(G) for its automorphism group.

Kahle–Newman conjecture. For every finite abelian pp-group GG,

limnP(Γn,pG)=1Aut(G)j=1(1pj).\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbb{P}(\Gamma_{n,p}\cong G)=\frac{1}{|\operatorname{Aut}(G)|}\prod_{j=1}^{\infty}\left(1-p^{-j}\right).

This is the Cohen–Lenstra limiting distribution. The source says the stronger version is false for p=2p=2, while the odd-prime case remains open; it would imply the stated limiting distribution for the mod-pp first Betti number.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

András Mészáros, “Using dense graph limit theory to count cocycles of random simplicial complexes”, arXiv:2509.06559 (2025).

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