Weighted analogue of the Batyrev–Manin conjecture

Let WW be a smooth weighted variety in WPqn(k)\mathbb{WP}^n_{\mathbf{q}}(k) with weights q=(q0,,qn)\mathbf{q}=(q_0,\ldots,q_n), let q=lcm(q0,,qn)q=\operatorname{lcm}(q_0,\ldots,q_n), and let AA be an ample divisor on WW. Define

ZhA(W(k),X)={pW(k):hA(p)X},Z_{\mathfrak{h}_A}(W(k),X)=\left|\{\mathfrak{p}\in W(k):\mathfrak{h}_A(\mathfrak{p})\leq X\}\right|,

where hA(p)=HA(ϕ(p))1/q\mathfrak{h}_A(\mathfrak{p})=H_A(\phi(\mathfrak{p}))^{1/q} and ϕ:WVPn(k)\phi:W\to V\subset\mathbb{P}^n(k). Weighted analogue of the Batyrev–Manin conjecture. As XX\to\infty,

ZhA(W(k),X)cWXaW(logX)bW,Z_{\mathfrak{h}_A}(W(k),X)\sim c_W X^{a_W}(\log X)^{b_W},

where cWc_W is proportional to gcd(q,φ(m))1\gcd(q,\varphi(m))^{-1} compared with the projective case, aW=m(dimW+1)a_W=m(\dim W+1), and bW=rankPic(W)1b_W=\operatorname{rank}\operatorname{Pic}(W)-1, with bW=0b_W=0 if dimW>1\dim W>1 or m>1m>1. This adapts the classical Batyrev–Manin prediction to weighted heights and the arithmetic sparsity caused by the weighted structure; the source notes that the classical prediction is known for toric varieties, while this weighted formulation is proposed as a new conjecture.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Tanush Shaska, “Arithmetic Sparsity and Obstructions in Weighted Projective Spaces”, arXiv:2509.02319 (2026).

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