Celoria–Levine–Friedl–Nagel–Orson–Powell concordance conjecture

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Let M≠S3M\neq S^3 be a closed orientable 33-manifold, let [S1,M][S^1,M] denote the set of free homotopy classes of loops in MM, and let CxM\mathcal{C}^M_x be the set of concordance classes of knots in MM representing x∈[S1,M]x\in[S^1,M]. An embedded dual 2-sphere for xx is an embedded 22-sphere in MM meeting a representative of xx transversely in one point. Concordance conjecture. The concordance set CxM\mathcal{C}^M_x contains infinitely many elements if and only if the class xx does not admit an embedded dual 2-sphere. The Concordance Lightbulb Theorem establishes the complementary case: when xx admits an embedded dual 22-sphere, all knots representing xx are concordant. The conjecture asserts that this is the exceptional case, while infinitude in the remaining cases is open in general.

References

Primary source

Ryan Stees, “Almost-concordance of knots in aspherical 3-manifolds”, arXiv:2508.14638 (2025).

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