Celoria–Levine–Friedl–Nagel–Orson–Powell concordance conjecture

Let MS3M\neq S^3 be a closed orientable 33-manifold, let [S1,M][S^1,M] denote the set of free homotopy classes of loops in MM, and let CxM\mathcal{C}^M_x be the set of concordance classes of knots in MM representing x[S1,M]x\in[S^1,M]. An embedded dual 2-sphere for xx is an embedded 22-sphere in MM meeting a representative of xx transversely in one point. Concordance conjecture. The concordance set CxM\mathcal{C}^M_x contains infinitely many elements if and only if the class xx does not admit an embedded dual 2-sphere. The Concordance Lightbulb Theorem establishes the complementary case: when xx admits an embedded dual 22-sphere, all knots representing xx are concordant. The conjecture asserts that this is the exceptional case, while infinitude in the remaining cases is open in general.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ryan Stees, “Almost-concordance of knots in aspherical 3-manifolds”, arXiv:2508.14638 (2025).

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