Hasse-principle frequency conjecture for genus-one hyperelliptic twists

Let C/QC/\mathbb Q be a genus-one hyperelliptic curve, let EE be its Jacobian, let Σ\Sigma be the specified finite set of places, and let Fb\mathcal F_b be the corresponding twist family. Assume every CdC_d has points everywhere locally and the 22^\infty-Selmer rank of Ed/QE_d/\mathbb Q is odd. Let nb=dimSbn_b=\dim\mathcal S_b. Hasse-principle frequency conjecture. The density of twists having a rational point is

limX#{dFb:d<X,Cd(Q)}#{dFb:d<X}={1/2,nb=1,1/8,nb=2,5/64,nb=3,29/1024,nb=4.\lim_{X\to\infty}\frac{\#\{d\in\mathcal F_b:|d|<X,\,C_d(\mathbb Q)\neq\varnothing\}}{\#\{d\in\mathcal F_b:|d|<X\}}= \begin{cases} 1/2,&n_b=1,\\ 1/8,&n_b=2,\\ 5/64,&n_b=3,\\ 29/1024,&n_b=4. \end{cases}

This gives a conjectural exact density for the Hasse principle in the twist family, refining the preceding positive lower bound; it is not resolved in the source.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Alex Bartel and Adam Morgan, “Galois module structures and the Hasse principle in twist families via the distribution of Selmer groups”, arXiv:2508.14026 (2025).

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