Conditional fluctuation conjecture for directed last passage percolation

Let Ω1\Omega_1 and Ω2\Omega_2 be the regions from the conditional law of large numbers conjecture, and let h(x,y)h(x,y) be its limiting profile. Under the assumptions and notation of the diagonal and same-side off-diagonal fluctuation theorems, condition on L(aN,bN)=N\mathcal L(aN,bN)=\ell N.

Conditional fluctuation conjecture. The following hold. For (x,y)Ω1(x,y)\in\Omega_1, the centered passage time has Tracy–Widom TW2\operatorname{TW}_2 fluctuations on the N1/3N^{1/3} scale with normalization

(ab(x1)(y1))1/6(a(x1)+b(y1))4/3N1/3.(ab(x-1)(y-1))^{-1/6}(\sqrt{a(x-1)}+\sqrt{b(y-1)})^{4/3}N^{1/3}.

For (x,y)Ω2Ω1(x,y)\in\Omega_2\setminus\overline{\Omega}_1, the N1/2N^{1/2}-scaled fluctuations converge in finite-dimensional distributions to the stated Brownian-bridge processes, with independent standard Brownian bridges on the two sides of the diagonal. For (x,y)R+2Ω2(x,y)\in\mathbb R_+^2\setminus\overline{\Omega}_2, the centered passage time has TW2\operatorname{TW}_2 fluctuations on the N1/3N^{1/3} scale with normalization

(abxy)1/6(ax+by)4/3N1/3.(abxy)^{-1/6}(\sqrt{ax}+\sqrt{by})^{4/3}N^{1/3}.

The conjecture extends the proved diagonal and off-diagonal fluctuation results to the full conditional phase diagram. The source explicitly marks the middle assertion as an expectation and provides a heuristic argument; no resolution is supplied.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jinho Baik, Dylan Cordaro and Tejaswi Tripathi, “Conditional exponential directed last passage percolation under a one-point upper large deviation event”, arXiv:2508.04954 (2026).

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