Nonabelian Cohen–Lenstra distribution conjecture for pro-prime-to-roots-of-unity class groups

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Let Q=QQ={\mathbb Q} or Fq(t)\mathbb F_q(t), and let μQ\mu_Q be the group of roots of unity contained in QQ. Let Γ\Gamma be the finite group and Γ∞\Gamma_\infty the cyclic subgroup governing the extensions under consideration. As KK varies over (Γ,Γ∞)(\Gamma,\Gamma_\infty)-extensions of QQ, consider the pro-prime-to-∣μQ∣|\mu_Q| completion of GO#(K)G_{\mathcal O}^{\#}(K). For an admissible Γ\Gamma-group HH with gcd⁡(∣H∣,∣μQ∣)=1\gcd(|H|,|\mu_Q|)=1 and char⁡(Q)∤∣H∣\operatorname{char}(Q)\nmid |H|, let its HH-moment be the expected number of Γ\Gamma-equivariant surjections onto HH. Nonabelian Cohen–Lenstra conjecture. The distribution of the pro-prime-to-∣μQ∣|\mu_Q| completion of GO#(K)G_{\mathcal O}^{\#}(K) is predicted by the probability measure μΓ,Γ∞\mu_{\Gamma,\Gamma_\infty} defined by the random group model. Moreover, the HH-moment of the distribution of GO#(K)G_{\mathcal O}^{\#}(K) is

1[HΓ∞:HΓ].\frac{1}{[H^{\Gamma_\infty}:H^{\Gamma}]}.

This is the main conjectural extension of the Cohen–Lenstra heuristics to nonabelian admissible Γ\Gamma-groups. The source gives no evidence that the distribution statement or the stated moments are resolved in the generality claimed.

References

Primary source

Yuan Liu and Ken Willyard, “The imaginary case of the nonabelian Cohen–Lenstra heuristics”, arXiv:2507.21558 (2025).

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