Várilly-Alvarado and Vakil's Grothendieck-ring measure conjecture

Fix d2d \geq 2. Let Hd,g\mathcal{H}_{d,g} be the stack of smooth degree-dd, genus-gg covers of P1\mathbb{P}^1, and let He,g\mathcal{H}_{\mathbf{e},g} be the locus with scrollar invariants e\mathbf{e}. Define the Grothendieck-ring-valued quantity

πgr(B,g)=[Hd,g]1eZd1:e/(d+g1)B[He,g].\pi^{\textnormal{gr}}(B,g)=[\mathcal{H}_{d,g}]^{-1}\sum_{\mathbf{e}\in\mathbb{Z}^{d-1}:\,\mathbf{e}/(d+g-1)\in B}[\mathcal{H}_{\mathbf{e},g}].

Várilly-Alvarado and Vakil's Grothendieck-ring measure conjecture. For all BB, the limit limgπgr(B,g)\lim_{g\to\infty}\pi^{\textnormal{gr}}(B,g) converges to a measure πgr\pi^{\textnormal{gr}} valued in the Grothendieck ring of stacks. Understanding this limit requires controlling the singular loci in the parameter spaces of covers; the paper explicitly says that proving the conjecture for d=5d=5 is outside its scope.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Sam Frengley and Sameera Vemulapalli, “Tschirnhausen Bundles of Quintic Covers of P^1”, arXiv:2507.06942 (2025).

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