Várilly-Alvarado and Vakil's limiting measure conjecture for scrollar invariants

Fix d≥2d \geq 2. Let Hd,g\mathcal{H}_{d,g} be the stack of smooth degree-dd, genus-gg covers of P1\mathbb{P}^1, and let He,g\mathcal{H}_{\mathbf{e},g} be the substack with scrollar invariants e\mathbf{e}. For an open ball B⊆Rd−1B \subseteq \mathbb{R}^{d-1} and g>0g>0, define

πgeo(B,g)=1dim⁡Hd,gdim⁡(⋃e∈Zd−1: e/(d+g−1)∈BHe,g).\pi^{\textnormal{geo}}(B,g) = \frac{1}{\dim \mathcal{H}_{d,g}}\dim\left(\bigcup_{\mathbf{e} \in \mathbb{Z}^{d-1}:\,\mathbf{e}/(d+g-1)\in B}\mathcal{H}_{\mathbf{e},g}\right).

Várilly-Alvarado and Vakil's limiting conjecture. For all B⊆Rd−1B \subseteq \mathbb{R}^{d-1}, the limit lim⁡g→∞πgeo(B,g)\lim_{g \to \infty}\pi^{\textnormal{geo}}(B,g) exists and depends only on the intersection of BB with the hyperplane

{(e‾1,…,e‾d−1):∑e‾i=1}\left\{(\overline{e}_1,\dots,\overline{e}_{d-1}):\sum\overline{e}_i=1\right\}

and not on BB. This conjecture describes the limiting geometric distribution of scrollar invariants; it is known in the paper for d=5d=5, but remains open in general.

References

Primary source

Sam Frengley and Sameera Vemulapalli, “Tschirnhausen Bundles of Quintic Covers of P^1”, arXiv:2507.06942 (2025).

Progress summary

Never refreshed

Nothing recorded yet. Refresh searches the literature and the public web for attempts on this problem, and writes the first summary here.

Solutions 0

No solutions have been posted yet.