Malle's moment predictions for the 2-class groups of cubic fields

From papers

Let KK) run through all isomorphism classes of cubic fields ordered by discriminant, and let Cl2(K)\operatorname{Cl}_2(K) denote the 22-class group of KK. A cubic field is totally real if it has three real embeddings and complex if it has one real embedding and one pair of complex-conjugate embeddings.

Malle's conjecture. The average size of Cl2(K)\operatorname{Cl}_2(K) over totally real cubic fields KK is 5/45/4, and its second moment is 15/815/8; over complex cubic fields KK, the average size is 3/23/2, and its second moment is 33.

These predictions arise from Cohen–Lenstra and Cohen–Martinet class-group heuristics adjusted for the presence of second roots of unity in the base field. The claims about the average sizes were proven by Bhargava; the second-moment assertions are the focus of the paper and, in the supplied context, are not stated as resolved.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Manjul Bhargava, Arul Shankar and Ashvin Swaminathan, “The second moment of the size of the 2-class group of monogenized cubic fields”, arXiv:2506.05539 (2025).

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