Mazur's growth number conjecture for Selmer groups over p-extensions

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Let E/QE/Q be an elliptic curve, let KK be an imaginary quadratic field, and let pp be a prime at which EE has good ordinary reduction. Let K/K\mathcal{K}/K be a Zp\mathbb{Z}_p-extension in which all primes of bad reduction for EE remain finitely decomposed. Write Kn\mathcal{K}_n for the degree-pnp^n layer of K\mathcal{K}, and let Kac\mathcal{K}_{\mathrm{ac}} denote the anticyclotomic Zp\mathbb{Z}_p-extension of KK. The pair (E,K)(E,K) is called generic if EE does not have complex multiplication by an order in KK, and exceptional otherwise; its sign is the sign of the relevant functional equation.

Mazur's growth number conjecture. For all sufficiently large nn,

corank⁡ZpSel⁡p∞(E/Kn)=cpn+O(1),\operatorname{corank}_{\mathbb{Z}_p}\operatorname{Sel}_{p^\infty}(E/\mathcal{K}_n)=cp^n+O(1),

where

c={0if K≠Kac or (E,K) has sign +1,1if K=Kac, (E,K) is generic, and has sign −1,2if K=Kac, (E,K) is exceptional, and has sign −1.c=\begin{cases}0&\text{if }\mathcal{K}\ne\mathcal{K}_{\mathrm{ac}}\text{ or }(E,K)\text{ has sign }+1,\\1&\text{if }\mathcal{K}=\mathcal{K}_{\mathrm{ac}},\ (E,K)\text{ is generic, and has sign }-1,\\2&\text{if }\mathcal{K}=\mathcal{K}_{\mathrm{ac}},\ (E,K)\text{ is exceptional, and has sign }-1.\end{cases}

The conjecture predicts the asymptotic growth of Selmer-group coranks in the finite layers of a Zp\mathbb{Z}_p-extension, distinguishing the anticyclotomic extension and the generic or exceptional nature of the pair. Its resolution status is not specified in the supplied text.

References

Primary source

Anwesh Ray, “Mazur's growth number conjecture and congruences”, arXiv:2505.19542 (2025).

Additional references

2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2021–2025). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2111.08866.

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