Conjectured asymptotic dependence of truncated martingale tails on the starting position

Let W(x)W_\infty^{(x)} and D(x)D_\infty^{(x)} denote the truncated martingales started from position xx, and let κ\kappa be the parameter appearing in the tail behavior of W(x)W_\infty^{(x)}. For x,yx,y\to\infty, the conjectured dependence on xx is modeled by the probability that a particle starting from xx gets close to the origin. Tail-asymptotic conjecture. Under mild assumptions, for some K(0,)K\in(0,\infty),

P(W(x)>y)KeκxP(W(0)>y),x,y,\mathbb{P}(W_\infty^{(x)}>y)\sim Ke^{-\kappa x}\mathbb{P}(W_\infty^{(0)}>y),\qquad x,y\to\infty,

and similarly, for some K(0,)K\in(0,\infty),

P(D(x)>y)KexP(D(0)>y).\mathbb{P}(D_\infty^{(x)}>y)\sim Ke^{-x}\mathbb{P}(D_\infty^{(0)}>y).

This would give precise tail asymptotics for the truncated branching-random-walk martingales and quantify their dependence on the initial position. The paper presents these asymptotics as an open problem under mild assumptions.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Heng Ma and Pascal Maillard, “Exponential moments of truncated branching random walk martingales”, arXiv:2504.20963 (2025).

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