Malle's prediction for twist classes of genus two curves with dihedral automorphisms

Let KK be a number field, let CC be a genus two curve over KK, and let M2(K){\mathcal M}_2(K) denote the set of genus two curves over KK. Write Ht⁡(C′)\operatorname{Ht}(C') for the height defined in the source, and let D4D_4 be the dihedral group of order eight.

Malle's prediction. If Aut⁡K‾(C)≅D4\operatorname{Aut}_{\overline{K}}(C)\cong D_4, then

#{C′∈M2(K):Ht⁡(C′)≤B and C′≅C over K‾}∼B1/4log⁡(B)2.\#\{C'\in {\mathcal M}_2(K): \operatorname{Ht}(C')\leq B \text{ and } C'\cong C \text{ over } \overline{K}\}\sim B^{1/4}\log(B)^2.

This is a prediction obtained from Malle's conjecture for D4D_4-octic extensions, translating the expected discriminant asymptotics into a count of curves in the twist class of CC. The source does not state that this prediction has been proved.

References

Primary source

Tyler Genao, Tristan Phillips, Fredderick Saia, Tim Santens and John Yin, “Counting points on some genus zero Shimura curves”, arXiv:2504.09400 (2025).

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