Malle's prediction for twist classes of genus two curves with dihedral automorphisms

Let KK be a number field, let CC be a genus two curve over KK, and let M2(K){\mathcal M}_2(K) denote the set of genus two curves over KK. Write Ht(C)\operatorname{Ht}(C') for the height defined in the source, and let D4D_4 be the dihedral group of order eight.

Malle's prediction. If AutK(C)D4\operatorname{Aut}_{\overline{K}}(C)\cong D_4, then

#{CM2(K):Ht(C)B and CC over K}B1/4log(B)2.\#\{C'\in {\mathcal M}_2(K): \operatorname{Ht}(C')\leq B \text{ and } C'\cong C \text{ over } \overline{K}\}\sim B^{1/4}\log(B)^2.

This is a prediction obtained from Malle's conjecture for D4D_4-octic extensions, translating the expected discriminant asymptotics into a count of curves in the twist class of CC. The source does not state that this prediction has been proved.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Tyler Genao, Tristan Phillips, Fredderick Saia, Tim Santens and John Yin, “Counting points on some genus zero Shimura curves”, arXiv:2504.09400 (2025).

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