Conjecture on the total second-order derivative mass in first-passage percolation

Let WnW_n be the edge set in the first-passage percolation model, let fτf^\tau be the passage-time function in the torus model, and let Mfτ\partial_M f^\tau denote the second-order environment derivative indexed by a two-element subset MWnM\subseteq W_n.

Second-order mass conjecture. There exists a constant CC independent of NN such that

MWn,M=2Mfτ22CN.\sum_{M\subseteq W_n,\,|M|=2}\|\partial_M f^\tau\|_2^2\leq C N.

This estimate would control the numerator in the second-order variance bound and is presented as an unproved conjecture in the paper.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ivan Matic, Rados Radoicic and Dan Stefanica, “Higher-order derivatives of first-passage percolation with respect to the environment”, arXiv:2504.08935 (2026).

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