Triangle moment conjecture for ERGMs in the phase-coexistence regime

Let μ\mu be an ERGM measure on graphs with vertex set [n][n], and let e1,e2,e3e_1,e_2,e_3 be edges spanning a triangle in KnK_n. Let ee be an arbitrary edge. Triangle moment conjecture. Even in the phase-coexistence regime, one has

\mleftEμ[X(e1)X(e2)X(e3)]Eμ[X(e)]3\mright1n.\mleft|\mathbb{E}_\mu[X(e_1)X(e_2)X(e_3)]-\mathbb{E}_\mu[X(e)]^3\mright|\lesssim \frac{1}{n}.

This would extend the bound proved for forests to graphs containing a cycle; the source notes that it can be proved under an FKG assumption but expects it to remain true in phase coexistence, where Mβ>1|M_{\boldsymbol\beta}|>1.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Vilas Winstein, “Concentration via metastable mixing, with applications to the supercritical exponential random graph model”, arXiv:2503.07571 (2025).

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