The Picard rank conjecture for simply branched Hurwitz spaces

Let d>0d>0 and let nn be even with n2d2n\geq 2d-2. Let cSdc\subset S_d be the conjugacy class of transpositions, and let [[CHurP1,nSd,c/Sd]/PGL2][[\operatorname{CHur}^{S_d,c}_{\mathbb P^1,n}/S_d]/\operatorname{PGL}_2] denote the Hurwitz stack of geometrically connected degree-dd covers of genus-00 curves with branch-point inertia in cc. Write \pic()\pic(-) for its Picard group. Picard rank conjecture. For all such dd, nn, and cc,

\pic([[CHurP1,nSd,c/Sd]/PGL2])Q0.\pic([ [\operatorname{CHur}^{S_d,c}_{\mathbb P^1,n}/S_d]/\operatorname{PGL}_2])\otimes\mathbb Q\simeq 0.

This is the original Picard rank conjecture for simply branched covers, where n=2g2+2dn=2g-2+2d and g0g\geq0. Mullane proved it whenever n4d2n\leq4d-2; the general case remains open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Aaron Landesman and Ishan Levy, “Homological stability for Hurwitz spaces and applications”, arXiv:2503.03861 (2025).

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