Bean's informal high-dimensional asymptotics for the full conformal LASSO

Let (Xi,Yi)i=1n+1(X_i,Y_i)_{i=1}^{n+1} follow the data-generating process described in Section 2, let β^\hat{\beta} be the LASSO estimator fit on all n+1n+1 observations, and let β^(n+1)\hat{\beta}_{(n+1)} be the corresponding estimator fit on the first nn observations. Let λi\lambda_i and ϵi\epsilon_i denote the scale and noise variables, let βi\beta_i^* denote the population regression coefficients, and suppose that d/nγd/n\to\gamma. Bean's informal asymptotic conjecture. Under these assumptions, there exist asymptotic constants NN_{\infty} and cc_{\infty} such that

YiXiβ^11+2λn+12c(Yn+1Xn+1β^(n+1))P0,Y_i-X_i^\top\hat{\beta}-\frac{1}{1+2\lambda_{n+1}^2c_{\infty}}(Y_{n+1}-X_{n+1}^\top\hat{\beta}_{(n+1)})\stackrel{\mathbb{P}}{\to}0,

and

β^β^(n+1)2PN.\|\hat{\beta}-\hat{\beta}_{(n+1)}\|_2\stackrel{\mathbb{P}}{\to}N_{\infty}.

Moreover, NN_{\infty} and cc_{\infty} can be computed exactly as solutions of a system of equations depending only on the distributions of ϵi\epsilon_i, λi\lambda_i, and βi\beta_i^*, the regularization level τ\tau, and the ratio γ\gamma. These asymptotics are heuristic and supported by simulations rather than proved in the paper; they are intended to predict the high-dimensional behaviour of the fitted residuals and coefficients underlying full conformal LASSO inference.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Isaac Gibbs and Emmanuel J. Candès, “Characterizing the Training-Conditional Coverage of Full Conformal Inference in High Dimensions”, arXiv:2502.20579 (2025).

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