Threshold conjecture for the EpiSLFV reproduction number

Let γ>0\gamma>0, and let ν\nu be a σ\sigma-finite measure on (0,)×(0,1](0,\infty)\times(0,1] satisfying the source condition. For the (γ,ν)(\gamma,\nu)-EpiSLFV process, define the reproduction number by

R0(γ,ν):=1γ010uVrν(dr,du).\mathrm{R}_{0}(\gamma,\nu):=\frac{1}{\gamma}\int_{0}^{1}\int_{0}^{\infty}uV_{r}\,\nu(dr,du).

Threshold conjecture. For all such γ\gamma and ν\nu: if R0(γ,ν)<1\mathrm{R}_{0}(\gamma,\nu)<1, then the (γ,ν)(\gamma,\nu)-EpiSLFV process goes extinct; if R0(γ,ν)>1\mathrm{R}_{0}(\gamma,\nu)>1, then the (γ,ν)(\gamma,\nu)-EpiSLFV process does not go extinct.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Apolline Louvet and Bastian Wiederhold, “A new stochastic SIS-type modelling framework for analysing epidemic dynamics in continuous space”, arXiv:2502.02106 (2026).

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