Quantitative rank distribution conjecture for elliptic curves over Fq(t)\mathbb{F}_q(t)

Let nZ0n\in\mathbb{Z}_{\geq 0} and suppose that char(Fq)>3\operatorname{char}(\mathbb{F}_q)>3. Let NTr(Fq(t),B)\mathcal{N}^{r}_{T}(\mathbb{F}_q(t),B) count the number of Fq\mathbb{F}_q-isomorphism classes of minimal elliptic curves over PFq1\mathbb{P}^1_{\mathbb{F}_q} with algebraic rank rZ0r\in\mathbb{Z}_{\geq 0} and torsion subgroup TT, ordered by the multiplicative discriminant height ht(Δ)=q12nBht(\Delta)=q^{12n}\leq B. Quantitative rank distribution conjecture.

NT=0r=0(Fq(t),B)=(q91q8q7)B5/6+o(B5/6),\mathcal{N}^{r=0}_{T=0}(\mathbb{F}_q(t),B)=\left(\frac{q^{9}-1}{q^{8}-q^{7}}\right)B^{5/6}+o(B^{5/6}), NT=0r=1(Fq(t),B)=(q91q8q7)B5/6+o(B5/6),\mathcal{N}^{r=1}_{T=0}(\mathbb{F}_q(t),B)=\left(\frac{q^{9}-1}{q^{8}-q^{7}}\right)B^{5/6}+o(B^{5/6}), NTr2(Fq(t),B)=o(B5/6),\mathcal{N}^{r\geq 2}_{T}(\mathbb{F}_q(t),B)=o(B^{5/6}),

where all oo terms are little-o. In particular, E(K)=1|E(K)|=1 and E(K)=ZE(K)=\mathbb{Z} each correspond to 50%50\% of all elliptic curves over K=Fq(t)K=\mathbb{F}_q(t) ordered by discriminant height, with equal leading term and identical leading coefficient (q91q8q7)\left(\frac{q^{9}-1}{q^{8}-q^{7}}\right). The exact counting functions for ranks 00 and 11 nevertheless differ because they have distinct lower-order main terms. The conjecture is presented as the quantitative consequence over Fq(t)\mathbb{F}_q(t) of the preceding rank-distribution conjecture together with the exact counting and torsion-density results; the source gives no resolution.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jun-Yong Park, “Quantitative rank distribution conjecture over F_q(t)”, arXiv:2409.14795 (2026).

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