Structural decomposition conjecture for the non-rigid locus

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Let MM be the moduli space under consideration and let NRL(M)\mathrm{NRL}(\mathcal M) be its non-rigid locus. Suppose its Zariski closure admits a decomposition into subvarieties.

Structural decomposition conjecture.

NRL(M)‾Zar=⋃i=1nPi∪⋃j=1mNj,\overline{\mathrm{NRL}(\mathcal M)}^{\mathrm{Zar}}=\bigcup_{i=1}^nP_i\cup\bigcup_{j=1}^mN_j,

where each PiP_i is dominated by a fiber space whose generic fiber is a product variety, and each NjN_j is birational to a Shimura variety of rank at least 22.

The source states that this conjecture follows conceptually from the finiteness conjecture and that an analogous theorem is proved assuming that finiteness conjecture.

References

Primary source

Ke Chen, Tianzhi Hu, Ruiran Sun and Kang Zuo, “On the distribution of non-rigid families in the moduli spaces”, arXiv:2408.11604 (2026).

Additional references

2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2013–2024). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:1308.6139.

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