Log Manin's conjecture for klt Campana points

Let (X,Dϵ=αAϵαDα)(X, D_\epsilon = \sum_{\alpha \in \mathcal A} \epsilon_\alpha D_\alpha) be a klt Fano Campana orbifold over a number field FF, let LL be a big Q\mathbb Q-divisor on XX, and let a((X,Dϵ),L)a((X,D_\epsilon),L) and b(F,(X,Dϵ),L)b(F,(X,D_\epsilon),L) be the associated birational invariants. Let SS be a finite set of places containing ΩF\Omega_F^\infty, let (X,Dϵ)(\mathcal X,\mathcal D_\epsilon) be a regular projective model over SpecOF,S\operatorname{Spec}\mathcal O_{F,S}, and let L\mathcal L be an adelically metrized big and nef Q\mathbb Q-divisor on XX. Write N(Q,L,T)=#{xQHL(x)T}N(Q,\mathcal L,T)=\#\{x\in Q\mid \mathsf H_{\mathcal L}(x)\leq T\}. Log Manin's conjecture. If (X,Dϵ)(OF,S)(\mathcal X,\mathcal D_\epsilon)(\mathcal O_{F,S}) is not thin, then there exist a thin set Z(X,Dϵ)(OF,S)Z\subset(\mathcal X,\mathcal D_\epsilon)(\mathcal O_{F,S}) and a constant c>0c>0 such that

N((X,Dϵ)(OF,S)Z,L,T)cTa((X,Dϵ),L)(logT)b(F,(X,Dϵ),L)1N((\mathcal X,\mathcal D_\epsilon)(\mathcal O_{F,S})\setminus Z,\mathcal L,T)\sim cT^{a((X,D_\epsilon),L)}(\log T)^{b(F,(X,D_\epsilon),L)-1}

as TT\to\infty. This is the proposed asymptotic for counting klt Campana points of bounded height; the source does not state a resolution status, so the conjecture is recorded as open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Dylon Chow, Daniel Loughran, Ramin Takloo-Bighash and Sho Tanimoto, “Campana points on wonderful compactifications”, arXiv:2403.14433 (2025).

Additional references

2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2020–2024). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2004.14763.

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