Poisson conjecture for the distribution of primes in short intervals

From papers

Let x>1x>1, let h=λlogxh=\lambda\log x, where λ=o((logx)ε)\lambda=o((\log x)^\varepsilon) for every ε>0\varepsilon>0, and let k(logh)2k\ll(\log h)^2. Define

πk(x;h):=#{nx:π(n+h)π(n)=k}.\pi_k(x;h):=\#\{n\leq x:\pi(n+h)-\pi(n)=k\}.

Poisson conjecture. As xx\to\infty,

πk(x;h)xλkeλk!.\pi_k(x;h)\sim x\frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}.

This predicts that the Poisson model remains valid for substantially growing values of kk, including the range k(logh)2k\ll(\log h)^2. The source says that existing upper and lower bounds are far from matching this prediction.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Vivian Kuperberg, “Sums of singular series with large sets and the tail of the distribution of primes”, arXiv:2210.09775 (2023).

Additional references

7 papers in this index state this conjecture (2012–2022). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2112.09268, arXiv:2007.06301, arXiv:2005.14397, arXiv:1705.08163, arXiv:1301.7165, arXiv:1207.0149.

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