Poisson conjecture for the distribution of primes in short intervals

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Let x>1x>1, let h=λlog⁡xh=\lambda\log x, where λ=o((log⁡x)ε)\lambda=o((\log x)^\varepsilon) for every ε>0\varepsilon>0, and let k≪(log⁡h)2k\ll(\log h)^2. Define

πk(x;h):=#{n≤x:π(n+h)−π(n)=k}.\pi_k(x;h):=\#\{n\leq x:\pi(n+h)-\pi(n)=k\}.

Poisson conjecture. As x→∞x\to\infty,

πk(x;h)∼xλke−λk!.\pi_k(x;h)\sim x\frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}.

This predicts that the Poisson model remains valid for substantially growing values of kk, including the range k≪(log⁡h)2k\ll(\log h)^2. The source says that existing upper and lower bounds are far from matching this prediction.

References

Primary source

Vivian Kuperberg, “Sums of singular series with large sets and the tail of the distribution of primes”, arXiv:2210.09775 (2023).

Additional references

7 papers in this index state this conjecture (2012–2022). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2112.09268, arXiv:2007.06301, arXiv:2005.14397, arXiv:1705.08163, arXiv:1301.7165, arXiv:1207.0149.

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