Conjectured asymptotic bounds for the probability of alternating Galois group

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Fix n≥4n\geq4. Let ff be a degree-nn polynomial whose coefficients are chosen independently and uniformly from [−L,L]∩Z[-L,L]\cap\mathbb{Z}, and let GfG_f denote its Galois group. The alternating-Galois-group conjecture. As L→∞L\to\infty,

L−n/2+ϵ≫Prob⁡(Gf=An)≫L−n/2.L^{-n/2+\epsilon}\gg\operatorname{Prob}(G_f=A_n)\gg L^{-n/2}.

Here the implied constants may depend on nn and ϵ\epsilon, as is standard for the notation ≫\gg. The conjecture refines the known upper bound discussed in the source and is motivated by proved lower bounds and the small-degree cases, but the supplied text gives no resolution status for the general assertion.

References

Primary source

Lior Bary-Soroker, Or Ben-Porath and Vlad Matei, “Probabilistic Galois Theory – The Square Discriminant Case”, arXiv:2207.12493 (2024).

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