Eventual sign periodicity conjecture for the weight two Euler characteristic of moduli spaces of curves

Let Mg{\mathcal M}_g denote the moduli space of smooth curves of genus gg, and let χ2(Mg)\chi_2({\mathcal M}_g) be its weight two compactly supported Euler characteristic. Eventual sign periodicity conjecture. For g23g \geq 23, the sign of χ2(Mg)\chi_2({\mathcal M}_g) is 1-1 for g0,1(mod4)g \equiv 0,1 \pmod 4 and +1+1 for g2,3(mod4)g \equiv 2,3 \pmod 4. The displayed computations suggest an eventually periodic sign pattern, but no proof of this assertion is supplied.

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Primary source

Sam Payne and Thomas Willwacher, “The weight two compactly supported Euler characteristic of moduli spaces of curves”, arXiv:2112.13155 (2021).

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