RDC+ lower-density conjecture for rank-zero elliptic curves

Let E\mathscr{E} be the set of isomorphism classes of elliptic curves over Q{\mathbb Q}, ordered by height, and let E\mathscr{E}' be the subset consisting of rank-zero elliptic curves with good reduction at 22 and 33. For a subset SE\mathcal{S}\subset\mathscr{E}, write S(x)\mathcal{S}(x) for the curves in S\mathcal{S} of height less than xx. RDC+ conjecture. The lower density of E\mathscr{E}' is

lim infx#E(x)#E(x)=12(112)(113)=16.\liminf_{x\rightarrow\infty}\frac{\#\mathscr{E}'(x)}{\#\mathscr{E}(x)}=\frac{1}{2}\left(1-\frac{1}{2}\right)\left(1-\frac{1}{3}\right)=\frac{1}{6}.

This combines the expected 50%50\% rank-zero proportion with the local proportions of good reduction at 22 and 33. The source presents it as a reasonable conjecture and gives no resolution.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Anwesh Ray, “Arithmetic statistics and diophantine stability for elliptic curves”, arXiv:2109.00830 (2021).

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