Time monotonicity conjecture for Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing

Let V(n,π)V(n,\pi) be the value function defined in, where nn denotes the time index, π\pi is the relevant state variable, μ\mu is a prior distribution, and ν\nu is the parameter appearing in the testing problem. Time monotonicity conjecture. The function V(n,π)V(n,\pi) is non-decreasing in nn for any prior distribution μ\mu and any ν\nu. The preceding results establish time monotonicity only under restrictive conditions, while the authors report no counterexamples within the exponential family and verify the property in several particular examples; the conjecture asserts it for arbitrary prior distributions.

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Primary source

Erik Ekström and Yuqiong Wang, “Bayesian sequential composite hypothesis testing in discrete time”, arXiv:2108.10866 (2021).

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